Thunder vs Nuggets Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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29 December 2023

Thunder vs Nuggets Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Despite a 118-117 win in Denver two weeks ago and a blowout win against the West-leading Timberwolves on Tuesday, OKC finds itself fetching points when it returns to Ball Arena on Friday. We break down the matchup in our NBA betting picks below.

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets are just two of six teams to hit the rarified 20-win plateau just over a third into the season.

Fitting then, that the two meet in the rarified air of Ball Arena in the Mile High City on Friday, with the two teams trying to chase down the West-leading Timberwolves.

Denver, riding a six-game win streak, is a 3.5-point favorite in the NBA odds.

Read below for my free Thunder vs. Nuggets NBA picks, and find out if OKC can snap the Nuggets’ fun run.

Thunder vs Nuggets odds

Thunder vs Nuggets predictions

The Denver Nuggets will be playing their second game in as many nights after drilling the visiting Grizzlies by 37 points on Thursday.

It was Denver’s highest scoring output of the season, again paced by big man Nikola Jokic, who put up 26 points, 14 rebounds, and 10 assists for his 11th triple-double of the season.

As a team, Denver shot a blistering 57.3% from the field, including a lethal 20-for-41 from beyond the arc, a 48.8% clip.

Denver has been amazing on the second half of back-to-backs, going 5-1 in six such games, even though its scoring average is just 112 points in those games, which would rank them Bottom 8 in the NBA.

The crazy part is there’s no drop off in efficiency: Denver still shoots it at 48.9%, which is a Top-4 mark, and it knocks down 37.8% of its threes, which is a tick better than their Top-10 mark overall.

The Oklahoma City Thunder enters this one having won five of their last six, and it hasn’t been an easy slate.

It includes a 118-117 win over these same Nuggets, as well as putting an end to the Clippers’ eight-game win streak, besting the Timberwolves 129-106, and topping the Knicks by nine last time out.

This is an offensive juggernaut that ranks fifth in the league at 121.3 points per game and is one of just six teams in the NBA hitting that 120-point mark.

The Thunder shoot it even better than Denver, ranking third at 49.7% from the field and second at 38.8% from beyond the arc.

They also capitalize on the rest advantage, going 5-1-1 against the spread. Denver is just 1-3-0 ATS with a rest disadvantage. With the season series split at one apiece, look for the Thunder's offensive punch to win out on Friday.

My best bet: Thunder moneyline (+136 at DraftKings)

Thunder vs Nuggets same-game parlay

Thunder moneyline

Over 229.5

Denver enters this contest as one of the best defensive teams in the league, holding teams to 110.2 points — that ranks third in the NBA.

While that would usually be a deterrent to take the Over — as is the fact that these teams have gone Under the total in three straight head-to-heads — OKC just showed what kind of a tear they are on.

They shredded Minnesota’s top-rated defense two games ago, a team that usually holds opponents to 107.4 points per game. The Wolves defense also ranks first in field goal shooting at 44.6% (a number, coincidentally, matched by the Thunder) and fourth in 3-point shooting at 34%.

When the dust settled in that win, OKC shot an incredible 60.5% from the field, coupled with a crisp 18-for-39 mark from 3-point range.

That was with Minnesota’s full roster too — something that Denver won’t have, as Aaron Gordon will be out for an extended period, as he recovers from facial and hand lacerations stemming from a dog bite.

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Thunder vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis

The lowest spread you can find for this matchup is three points, though it’s climbed as high as 4.5 with the majority of the books settling in at 3.5.

The Thunder are the NBA’s best bet against the spread, going a crisp 20-9-0 ATS, with just Philadelphia and Orlando at the 20-win mark on the spread. That includes a league-best 8-3-1 ATS mark on the road.

Denver has a losing mark of 14-18-0 ATS overall this season, but they're 8-6-1 ATS at Ball Arena.

The total opened at 229.5, but it wasn’t going to stay there — it never usually does when you throw a Top-5 scoring team into the mix. The line has since moved to 231.5, and there’s a possibility it could climb higher as tip-off approaches.

OKC’s O/U record is a sharp 18-11 which ranks sixth in the NBA. It’s a different story with Denver, where the Nuggets have hit the Over just 11 times in 32 games this season.

Thunder vs Nuggets betting trend to know

After losing four straight in this head-to-head, OKC has now won two of the last three and is 7-3-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Nuggets.

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