NBA playoffs odds, predictions: Three player props for Monday’s action
Dillon Brooks, the loquacious swingman for the Memphis Grizzlies, ran his mouth in a big way after his team knotted its best-of-7 series against the Los Angeles Lakers with a Game 2 victory at home.
Then came Game 3 on Saturday night, when Brooks’ ongoing verbal assault of Lakers star LeBron James turned physical, as he took his fist to James’ groin early in the second half and got ejected.
Brooks undoubtedly will resume his yapping when he returns to the court in Los Angeles for Game 4 on Monday night.
But will Brooks back up his big talk with a big scoring effort? Eh, we’re betting against that with one of our trio of prop bet recommendations for Monday’s two NBA playoff contests — one from Bucks vs. Heat and two from Grizzlies vs. Lakers.
Odds updated as of 1 p.m. ET on April 24.
Odds: 13.5, Over -110/Under -120 (BetMGM)
Prediction: Under
If the NBA had an all-pro team for trash talking, Brooks would be a unanimous first-team selection.
The sixth-year pro from Oregon not only doesn’t mind speaking his mind, but he seems to thrive off taking verbal potshots at opponents — no matter if the target is a rookie or one of the NBA’s all-time greats.
But as the saying goes, Brooks’ mouth often writes checks that his play can’t cash. That absolutely was the case in Game 3 when Brooks missed 10 of 13 field-goal attempts and finished with just seven points before hitting the showers after deliberately attacking James’ nether regions.
Brooks did score 15 points in Memphis’ 128-112 loss in Game 1 at home. But in nearly 42 minutes of court time since, he’s produced a total of 19 points on 8 of 27 shooting.
Going back to the regular season, Brooks has finished shy of 14 points in nine of his last 13 games. And only twice during this span has Brooks even cleared 15 points — a 30-point effort against the Clippers on March 29 and a 25-point performance against the Pelicans in overtime on April 5.
His point totals in six games this season against LeBron and the Lakers: 9, 7, 13, 15, 12 and 7. Our trusty calculator tells us that’s 10.5 points per game.
We’re not sure what led oddsmakers to post Brooks’ scoring prop at 13.5 points for Game 4. But all signs indicate he’ll fall short of it — and don’t be surprised if James’ defense is a big reason why.
Odds: 37.5, Over -113/Under -113 (FanDuel)
Prediction: Under
Davis was spectacular in helping the Lakers to a never-in-doubt 111-101 victory over Memphis in Game 3. He had 31 points, 17 rebounds, two assists, two steals and three blocked shots.
However, prior to that monster effort, the 6-foot-10 center/power forward had amassed more than 37 combined points and rebounds just once in eight games: He had 24 points and 15 rebounds in L.A.’s come-from-behind play-in game victory over Minnesota.
Davis did have two big regular-season games against Memphis, finishing with 52 and 47 combined points and rebounds. However, “The Brow” had to be dominant in those two contests because James was sidelined with a foot injury.
With a healthy James by his side in the first two games of this series against the Grizzlies, Davis went for 22 points and 12 rebounds (34 combined), and 13 points and nine boards (22 combined).
Obviously, the Lakers will need Davis to fill the bucket and crash the glass Monday night in order to take a commanding 3-1 lead in this best-of-7 series. But they don’t need him to be Superman — a nice 25-point, 11-rebound effort will do the trick.
And such a trick — as solid as it would be — still would leave Davis short of his 37.5 points/rebounds prop.
Odds: 5.5, Over -128/Under +100 (FanDuel)
Prediction: Over
Now in his 15th NBA season, Love not only is on the back nine of his career, he’s sitting in the 18th fairway about 110 yards from the hole.
But while his days of consistently posting double-doubles are behind him, Love remains a productive asset. He’s proved that in Miami’s two upset wins over the Bucks in what has been a surprising first-round playoff series.
In the opener in Milwaukee, Love had 18 points and eight rebounds while playing nearly 23 minutes. Then in Game 3 at home, the former UCLA star had just six points but contributed seven boards in 20 1/2 minutes.
What happened in between? Love tallied just four points and three rebounds in the Heat’s Game 2 blowout loss. But he was on the court for barely 11 minutes in that one.
We expect Love to see extensive action Monday night, mostly out of necessity, as four of Miami’s key players are dealing with injuries. Shooting guards Victor Oladipo (knee) and Tyler Herro (hand) out, while leading scorers Jimmy Butler (lower body) and Bam Adebayo (hamstring) are ailing.
Butler and Adebayo will play. But they’re going to need some help to fend off a desperate Bucks team that’s looking to avoid falling into a 3-1 series hole.
Milwaukee superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, who hasn’t played since suffering a back injury late in the first quarter of Game 1, is expected to return Monday night. But will he be asked to bang bodies down low in the pursuit of rebounds, especially since one shot to the back could send him to the sidelines again? Unlikely.
So there should be plenty of opportunities for Love to clean up missed shots in Game 4. Oddsmakers seem to share that opinion, as they have Love projected for 5.5 rebounds with juice to the Over — even though Love has cleared five boards just once in this series and three times in his last 13 games.
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