Grizzlies vs Lakers NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions

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24 April 2023

Grizzlies vs Lakers NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions

The Memphis Grizzlies haven't been able to contain Anthony Davis. Our NBA betting picks explain why that won't change during Game 4.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Memphis Grizzlies find themselves in virtually a must-win scenario on Monday night when they face the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 4 at Crypto.com Arena.

The Lakers dominated Game 3 on Saturday night after the Grizzlies gave them some bulletin-board material heading into the matchup. Memphis now will look to even the series and gain back home-court advantage. Will LeBron be able to lead the Lakers to a 3-1 series lead?

Let's examine the matchup in our Grizzlies vs. Lakers free NBA betting picks and predictions.

Grizzlies vs Lakers Game 4 best odds

Grizzlies vs Lakers Game 4 picks and predictions

The Memphis Grizzlies won Game 2 at home on Wednesday night, and then Dillon Brooks called LeBron James “old.” Unsurprisingly, the Los Angeles Lakers and LeBron came out firing in Game 3 while taking a monstrous 35-9 first-quarter lead. The Lakers would go on to notch a 10-point win and take a 2-1 series lead.

LeBron is an incredible 15-0 in playoff series when his team holds a 3-1 lead. That makes Monday night's contest an enormous one for the Grizzlies. But the Grizzlies are one of the NBA's worst road teams, despite being the 2-seed in the West and boasting a great overall record. The Grizzlies went 16-26 in road games this season, and 0-3 when visiting the Lakers after their loss on Saturday night.

Without Steven Adams, the Grizzlies have been struggling mightily to defend Anthony Davis down low. Davis is averaging 22.0 points, 12.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.7 steals, and 5.0 blocks per game through the first three contests. He's coming off an impressive 31-point and 17-rebound performance on Saturday. Davis has also posted a plus/minus of plus-35 in the series.

The Grizzlies' big men of Jaren Jackson Jr., Xavier Tillman, and Santi Aldama finished with a plus/minus of minus-18 on Saturday while combining for 25 points, 19 rebounds, seven turnovers, and 10 fouls. That won't get it done regardless of how great Ja Morant plays, as he registered 45 points, 13 assists, and nine rebounds on Saturday.

You can find Davis’ points and rebounds combination total as low as 37.5. After a combination of 48 on Saturday night, it's hard to envision him going Under this number. Davis notched totals of 47 and 52 during his two regular-season games against Memphis.

My best bet: Anthony Davis Over 37.5 points and rebounds (-115 at BetMGM)

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Grizzlies vs Lakers Game 4 spread analysis

After being underdogs in the first two games, the Lakers are favorites for the second straight contest in this series. They easily covered the 4.5-point spread on Saturday night and will face a similar line on Monday. The winning team has covered during every game between these two clubs in 2022-23.

Memphis has not only posted a bad road record straight up, but the team is even worse against the spread. The Grizzlies are 14-27-1 ATS on the road, tied for the NBA's second-worst mark.

The Grizzlies are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games against a team with a winning home record. They're also 2-5 ATS over their last seven games when their opponent scores 100-plus points in the previous contest. The Lakers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning straight-up record.

We'll see another big game from Morant, but Game 3 proved that won’t be enough without some help. The Lakers know they just need to keep Davis involved and let LeBron do his thing and they should be fine. I like the Lakers to cover and take a 3-1 series lead.

Grizzlies vs Lakers Game 4 Over/Under analysis

Surprisingly, this series has been a little inconsistent with the scoring totals. Game 2 featured 196 points, then Game 3 finished with 240. Game 4 will likely land somewhere in the middle, which is where you'll find the betting total as well at 222.5 points.

The Under is 10-2 during the Grizzlies' last 12 games against a team with a winning straight-up record, and it's 19-7 in their last 26 road games against a squad with a winning home record. The Under is 5-1-1 in the Lakers' last seven games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Under is also 16-4-1 in the last 21 meetings between these two clubs.

The total shifted toward a higher number after the high-scoring Game 3, but it may be a bit too inflated. It's much more likely that these two teams revert back to a scoring pattern we saw in the first two games of the series. Take the Under.