NBA Rookie of the Year Odds (Is There a Better Bet Than Victor Wembanyama?)

Should we call the NBA Rookie of the Year award the Victor Wembanyama Invitational?

There may not be a more hyped-up rookie than Wembanyama since LeBron James entered the NBA in the 2003 NBA Draft. Some sportsbooks – like DraftKings – have special props just for Wemby this season. 

So, as a result, Wembanyama is a clear favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award, coming in at +100 odds. 

He’s followed up by Portland Trail Blazers guard and No. 3 overall pick Scoot Henderson as well as Oklahoma City Thunder big man Chet Holmgren (last season’s No. 2 overall pick). Holmgren missed his entire rookie season due to a foot injury, so he’s a part of this year’s rookie class when it comes to the awards market. 

There is some precedent for Chet to win this award – Blake Griffin and Ben Simmons both did it after missing their first season due to injury – but it may be tough given how great oddsmakers – and people around the NBA – expect Wembanyama to be. 

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Wemby is the clear favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award, but as I mentioned in my 2023-24 season preview, I have no interest in investing in a future at +100 odds. Instead, bettors may want to see if Wemby gets off to a slow start – or another rookie gets off to a fast start – that shifts his odds to a more favorable number.

If not, then Wemby will likely run away with the award.

The Spurs are not only building their franchise around the French phenom but their defense and offense will likely run through him as well. With San Antonio in a rebuilding phase, Victor should put up huge numbers in his first season. 

If he somehow gets the Spurs to the playoffs, he’s a near lock to win ROY.

Scoot Henderson is the only player that I’ve invested in for this market.

I took him at +250, as he has a clear path to a major role with Damian Lillard out of the picture and now with the Milwaukee Bucks. 

I’d love to see the Blazers move Malcolm Brogdon to limit the competition for minutes at the guard spots in Portland, but the team didn’t draft Henderson for him to sit on the bench. He thrived in his small Summer League sample size, and I think he can put the numbers up that keep him in the conversation for this award. 

I mentioned that there is precedent for Holmgren to win this award, but at the end of the day, there may be too many mouths to feed in OKC. 

The Thunder are trying to make the playoffs, and they have proven pieces in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, and Jalen Williams that will likely lead the offense. 

This isn’t to say that Chet won’t have a solid role, but he may not have the No. 1 duties that Scoot and Wemby will have. 

My thoughts on Brandon Miller are perfectly summed up in my season preview: 

“Miller is an interesting case with Kelly Oubre Jr. now in Philly, but Miles Bridges is back – as is PJ Washington – and the Hornets appear to be trying to compete for a playoff spot. Will Miller get the touches to outplay Scoot, Chet, and Wemby who all have direct paths to lead roles? That’s a risk I’m not willing to take.”

I would have loved Amen Thompson as a dark horse to win Rookie of the Year, but then the Rockets signed Fred VanVleet. 

Maybe the team starts Thompson, FVV, and Jalen Green, but I’d expect the lineup to look more like this:

That leaves Thompson in a supporting role on a team that has one of the worst offensive ratings in the NBA since James Harden was traded. That’s not enough to win Rookie of the Year unless he works his way into a major role pretty early in the season. 

Ausar Thompson – the Detroit Pistons wing and twin brother to Amen – was extremely impressive on both ends in the Summer League. 

I wouldn’t be shocked if he works his way into the starting lineup, but I don’t know if he’ll put up the offensive counting numbers to get the nod for this award over Scoot, Wemby, or Chet.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.