Thunder vs Spurs Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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24 January 2024

Thunder vs Spurs Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The future of the NBA looks bright with Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama starting to come of age. The two unicorns duke it out tonight in San Antonio and our NBA betting picks expect Holmgren's defense to be the focal point tonight.

Not often does a meeting between the best team in a conference and the worst team in the conference qualify as appointment viewing, but when the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs clash, it will be must-see TV for the next eight years. Chet Holmgren vs. Victor Wembanyama should be that entertaining and competitive for the rest of this decade.

Of course, Holmgren’s Thunder have the edge tonight, leading the West in point differential, points per game, and appropriately atop the standings, but his individual matchup with Wembanyama provides a different handicapping angle — NBA odds aside.

Let’s discuss the two frontrunners for Rookie of the Year in our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview the Thunder vs the Spurs on January 24, with tip set for 9:30 ET.

Thunder vs Spurs odds

Thunder vs Spurs predictions

This best bet will end up on FanDuel, so let’s use that set of Rookie of the Year odds for consistency’s sake. FanDuel lists Victor Wembanyama as an odds-on favorite at -125 with Chet Holmgren chasing him at even money.

No disrespect to Jaime Jaquez Jr. (300-to-1) or Brandon Miller (500-to-1), but this is a two-horse race.

Not to delve into handicapping a postseason award in this January game preview, but Wembanyama has played 37 of 43 games. He is on pace to clear the 65-game requirement to win an award by five or six games. That said, if the Blazers or the Hornets mount a more aggressive tank before the trade deadline, San Antonio may need to dive more proactively toward the bottom of the league to protect their best chance at winning the lottery. That would likely include sitting Wemby, to the benefit of anyone backing Holmgren for ROY.

That possibility aside, perhaps Holmgren’s best path to winning the award is to prevail in these head-to-head matchups with the French rookie. Neither played well when they met in November, Wembanyama scoring eight points on 4-of-15 shooting with 14 rebounds while Holmgren managed nine points on 3-of-10 shooting with seven rebounds. It was a dud of a debut for what should be a years-long rivalry.

Both are playing better now, Wembanyama averaging 27.2 points in his last five games while Holmgren plays more of an all-around game, averaging 15.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game this month.

His scoring average was boosted by a three-game stretch against the Wizards, Heat, and Blazers in which he averaged 24.3 points. Outside of that, Holmgren has scored 12.6 points per game in nine January games.

Again, though, he has filled the stat sheet most nights, and his defensive impact is undeniable.

Assume the Oklahoma City Thunder know they should win tonight. Assume Holmgren recognizes the best path toward winning tonight is also his best path toward winning Rookie of the Year, shutting down Wembanyama and thus highlighting the Gonzaga product’s all-around game.

If granting those assumptions, doubting Holmgren to score makes sense. He does not do it generally, it would not be Oklahoma City’s strongest path forward tonight, and his focus on defense will only help his national profile.

My best bet: Chet Holmgren Under 16.5 points (-120 at FanDuel)

Thunder vs Spurs same-game parlay

Chet Holmgren Under 15.5 points

Victor Wembanyama Under 23.5 points

Victor Wembanyama Over 1.5 threes made

Sacrificing one point on the Chet Holmgren points prop boosts this same-game parlay by 95 cents if shopping at DraftKings instead of FanDuel. While that increases some risk, the 13.5 percent boost feels worth that concern.

If backing Holmgren to fall short of his points prop because he focuses on defending Wembanyama, then fading Victor Wembanyama’s points prop makes sense, as well.

Adding the counter-intuitive piece of Wembanyama making multiple three-pointers sends the payout on this same-game parlay beyond what it should be. Wembanyama has hit at least two 3s in 21 of his 37 games, and in 10 of those 21, he fell short of 24 points. By no means is this uncorrelated parlay unprecedented, despite the sportsbook algorithms juicing its payout in that direction.

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Thunder vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis

The Thunder opened as 8-point favorites on Tuesday evening before spending much of Wednesday morning at -7, some sportsbooks even flashing at -6.5. Credit a back-to-back for that issue, a stressful back-to-back in that the Blazers nearly topped Oklahoma City last night. Well, Portland hopes it is still well, having filed a protest with the NBA over how that game ended.

All back-to-backs take their toll, but the Thunder kept two of their starters to fewer than 25 minutes and two more at fewer than 33. There may still be legs on the floor tonight, presumably why the line ticked back up to -8.

The total opened Tuesday at 241 and slipped up to 242 midday Wednesday thanks to expecting a clean Thunder injury report despite the schedule disadvantage.