NCAA Football Predictions: Week 1 Opening Line Report and Picks
Now that we had our appetite whet with a few games this past weekend, it's time for the main entree, Week 1 of the college football season. With games starting Thursday and running through until Labor Day Monday, there are plenty of opportunities to start to build a bankroll and make this gambling football season a profitable one.
The "dogs" came out barking to start the 2023 college season, going 5-2 in the seven-lined games. Of course, in true "Mush" fashion from "A Bronx Tale", I was on the dogs in the two games they slipped up in, although I believe the Ohio game would have been different had the Ohio QB not been removed for precautionary measures. Each week in this space I'll preview some contests that caught my eye early on, with days and times noted in parathensis.
Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.
N.C. State -15.5 at Connecticut (Thursday, Aug. 31, 7:30 PM)
The Wolfpack begin their 2023 campaign with an interesting nonconference matchup against the independent UConn Huskies. There is a lot of buzz coming out of Raleigh speculating that this NC State squad could be a dark horse for the ACC title this season. After a season that saw head coach Dave Doreen start 4 different QBs over the course of the season, a rare in-conference transfer took place when UVA's former 3-year starter Brennan Armstrong came to NC State. NC State sits in the bottom half of returning experience in the ACC, though, while UConn has a great deal of returning experience for former NFL coach Jim Mora. The key to that experience is an offensive line that boasts 105 collective starts. That kind of experience can go a long way to negating big point spread, especially at home. NC State is 3-0 SU against UConn, but a dismal 0-2-1 ATS against the Huskies. In addition, they are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games played on Week 1. The pick: UConn +15.5
Nebraska at Minnesota -7.5 (Thursday, Aug. 31, 8 PM)
In an effort to always be different, the Big Ten loves to start their season off with a conference game. Not only is it a conference game, but it's also a divisional matchup between the Cornhuskers and Golden Gophers. New Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule gets thrown right into the fire against a Minnesota team that many expect to contend for the Big Ten West crown. The Cornhuskers have historically struggled against Minnesota, going 3-7 SU over the last 10 games, with a slightly better 4-6 ATS mark. This line has moved a half-point to Nebraska's side, and that is fantastic for Gopher backers. Rhule will be a great hire for the Cornhuskers, but he has historically been slow starting out of the gate. Use that to your advantage. The Pick: Minnesota -7.5
Louisville -7.5 at Georgia Tech (Friday, Sept. 1st, 7:30 PM)
One of the more intriguing matchups of the opening weekend, in my opinion. Louisville's prodigal son, Jeff Brohm, finally lands back in the Cardinals' nest and has a plethora of weapons to work with. First is the former Cal QB Jack Plummer, who threw for more than 3,000 yards with 21 TDs against 9 INTs in the Pac 12 last season. Protecting the QB and opening holes for the running game is the second-most experienced offensive line in the country, with 150 starts among the 2-deep linemen. The Yellow Jackets don't pack much of a sting as home dogs, going 0-4 both SU and ATS in their last four September games as home underdogs. They return just five offensive starters and second-year HC Brent Key has his work cut out for him. Jeff Brohm makes the Louisville faithful wish he would have come back years ago. The Pick: Louisville -7.5
Fresno State at Purdue -4.5
Purdue begins their life without head coach Jeff Brohm, who left here to go back to his alma mater, Louisville. Ryan Walters is a first-time head coach, and the immediate future looks bleak in West Lafayette, as one of their starting WRs was lost due to an ACL injury in summer camp. Purdue and Fresno have never played before. The Bulldogs, though, are typically quick out of the gate, going 4-1 ATS in the last 5 Week 1 games. They're also currently riding a nine-game winning streak. Fresno St. HC Jeff Tedford brought in UCF transfer Mikey Keene at QB. Tedford is one of the best in-game coaches in college football today, and we fully expect him to take advantage of a re-organized Purdue outfit. Models call for the Bulldogs to win outright, so any points we get are insurance. The Pick: Fresno State +4.5
Virginia vs. Tennessee -28 (Nashville, TN) (Saturday, Sept 2, 12:00 PM)
Tennessee has everybody talking after last year's 11-2 regular season. Head coach Josh Heupel turned things around in a hurry, going from 7-6 in 2021 to last year's stellar mark. QB Joe Milton takes over for the departed Hendon Hooker and will be in the Heisman talk early on in the season. However, they lost the majority of their talented receiving corps, and that might slow an offense that led the nation in scoring with 46.1 ppg. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, return eight defensive starters from a unit that was commendable last season at 24.0 ppg. There are two plays here to focus on. We expect Tennessee to win this game, but 28 points is a lot to give a Power 5 school, especially one with an above-average defense. Since 2000, UVA is 0-6 SU when a road dog of 28+ points, but 4-2 ATS. The UNDER 58.5 is also a key play. In the last 5 of those aforementioned contests, the under was 4-1. In addition, the under in UVA's last 11 games is 8-3. The Pick: Virginia +28 AND UNDER 58.5
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