NCAA Tournament Bracket Watch: Who joins Purdue and Alabama as No. 1 seeds?

The next time you’re feeling unlucky, pause and pour one out for Motoyuki Mabuchi.

In the 2008 World Series of Poker Main Event, Mabuchi began a hand with pocket aces. He caught another bullet on the flop. And then another one on the river. With quad aces, one of the most unbeatable hands in poker, Mabuchi understandably bet his entire stack.

There was just one problem: Justin Phillips had a royal flush. The rest of the table, which oddly included actor Ray Romano, loudly gasped when the cards were shown, and with good reason — the odds of those two hands happening at the same time were 1 in 2.7 billion.

So we can’t really complain about our much milder bad beat this week, which is the task of identifying the top four seeds in the NCAA Tournament today, 45 days before Selection Sunday. Like Mabuchi, we already have pocket rockets in Purdue and Alabama. But in a season where there are a lot of kings and queens but few true aces, who are the other two No. 1s?

This seemed oh-so-easy a week ago, when Kansas and Houston were safely on the top line. But then the Jayhawks got blasted at home by TCU and fell again Monday night at Baylor for their third straight loss. Houston took on an even more damaging defeat Sunday, dropping a Quad 3 game at home to Temple. Our top No. 2 seed last week, UCLA, lost at Arizona on Saturday and at USC on Thursday night, while then-No. 6 overall seed Kansas State got beat at Iowa State.

So, um … check?

Let’s take a look at the contenders to join the Boilermakers and Crimson Tide on the top line, with the reasons to bet ’em and the reasons to fold ’em (numbers as of Thursday afternoon):

Houston

Bet ’em: Like the computer nerds who dominate online poker, the Cougars are algorithmic darlings. Even after the Temple loss, Houston still ranks No. 1 in NET, KenPom, Sagarin and BPI.

Fold ’em: Houston won at Virginia and beat Saint Mary’s in Fort Worth, but the résumé is a little light outside of that (Wednesday’s win at UCF did give the Cougars a fourth Q1 chip). The AAC isn’t going to provide many challenges the rest of the way. The Coogs are sixth and fourth in KPI and SOR, the two most results-oriented metrics.

Kansas

Bet ’em: It’s been a rough stretch for Bill Self’s crew, but all three losses were against top-four seeds and two came on the road (including one in overtime). KU’s 11 combined Quad 1 and 2 wins are tied with Alabama for the most in the country, and there’s not a bad loss to be found here against the NET’s No. 1 schedule.

Fold ’em: The Jayhawks don’t look like an ace in the efficiency metrics: 10th in NET and KenPom, 11th in Sagarin and 16th in BPI.

Tennessee

Bet ’em: The Volunteers rank No. 2 in NET, KenPom, BPI and Sagarin. And they beat Kansas, convincingly, in the Bahamas.

Fold ’em: A mere three Quad 1 wins are counterbalanced by two curious Quad 2 losses (Colorado in Nashville, Kentucky at home).

Arizona

Bet ’em: The Wildcats are 9-3 in the first two quads and boast home wins over UCLA and Tennessee. They’d make a lot of geographic sense as the No. 1 seed in the West Region.

Fold ’em: Arizona has lost to three non-tournament teams, including at home to Washington State, and its range of metrics (11th in NET, 16th in KenPom, 20th in BPI) don’t look like a No. 1 seed.

Big 12 wild cards: Kansas State/Iowa State/Texas

Bet ’em: The Big 12 has an astounding six teams on the top four seed lines this week, and it sure feels like the champion of this league deserves a No. 1 seed. These three are tied atop the standings and boast a combined 17 Quad 1 wins.

Fold ’em: K-State has some metrics in the 20s and one in the 30s. Iowa State’s profile looks more like a No. 2 seed at the moment. Texas? Hold ’em, at least until Saturday’s SEC/Big 12 showdown at Tennessee.

OK, time to ante up. There are no unreasonable choices here, but we placed our bets on Houston and Tennessee this week, figuring in a group this close that the metrics would win the day for the committee (and giving the Vols the head-to-head tiebreaker against Kansas). But we are far from all-in on those picks.

Some other quick notes on the bracket:

• USC’s win over UCLA gets the Trojans in the field, while Memphis — which is top 40 in every major metric — re-enters the bracket. Want more talk about the teams on the cut line? Good, no, great news: Eamonn Brennan’s indispensable Bubble Watch debuts for 2023 next week!

• This week’s Final Four pairings are South vs. East and Midwest vs. West based on our seed list, which you can find below. An asterisk denotes conference autobid qualifier.

• If you’ve got questions or complaints, bring ’em to the comments and you just might be lucky enough to get a response. Deal?