New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: Odds & Lines (7/7/23)
- Who: New York Mets at San Diego Padres
- When: Friday, July 7
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET / 6:40 p.m. PT
- Where: Petco Park (San Diego, California)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Mets +110, Padres -130
- Runline: Mets +1.5 (-195), Padres -1.5 (+165)
- Total: Over/Under 8 Runs (-105/-115)
Moneyline
The New York Mets (41-46) and San Diego Padres (41-46) will face off on Friday in the opener of a three-game series at Petco Park.
Friday’s contest features a pair of well-known starting pitchers, with Justin Verlander taking the mound for New York and Yu Darvish getting the nod for San Diego. Verlander is 3-4 with a 3.66 ERA over 11 starts in his first season with the Mets. He’s had more success this year than Darvish, who is 5-6 with a 4.84 ERA in 14 starts for the Padres.
San Diego is barely over .500 as a moneyline favorite this year, going 32-31. The Padres have a similar record at home, going 23-22 at Petco Park. Conversely, New York is 21-27 on the road and 9-19 as the moneyline underdog.
Verlander has not allowed an earned run over his last two outings, while Darvish has given up at least four runs in four of his last five starts. The Mets are also 5-0 to start July, making them a live dog tonight.
Runline
Looking at the spread, New York is 36-51 against the runline this season, including 20-28 on the road. San Diego, meanwhile, is 42-45 against the runline, including 21-24 at home.
The Mets rank 18th in run differential at +1 through 87 games this season, while the Padres own MLB’s seventh-best run differential at +35 through 87 games.
The math says San Diego is expected to win this game by 0.4 runs, which is below the runline of 1.5 runs. However, the average margin of victory at Petco Park this year is 3.7 runs.
While New York is undefeated in July, the Padres are also coming into this game hot. They’re 4-1 this month with a +18 run differential, covering the spread in all four of their wins. They appear to be hitting their stride as the All-Star break approaches.
Darvish has also been a much better pitcher at home this year. The veteran righty has a 3.64 ERA in seven starts at Petco Park compared to a 6.16 ERA in seven starts on the road.
Accordingly, don’t shy away from San Diego on the runline tonight.
Total
Looking at the Over/Under, these teams have been trending in opposite directions lately. The Over is 2-6-2 over the Mets’ last 10 games but is 7-1-2 in the Padres’ last 10.
Both lineups feature plenty of star power, and with the way Darvish has been scuffling lately, the bats could be in for a big night.
The Over is 7-0-1 in San Diego’s last eight series openers, so we expect more than eight runs to be scored and lean toward the Over.
