New York Yankees at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

The New York Yankees (60-57) and Miami Marlins (61-57) clash in the Sunday finale of a 3-game series. First pitch at loanDepot park is 1:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Yankees took Friday’s series opener 9-4, but were held in check by RHP Sandy Alcantara in a 3-1 pitcher’s duel Saturday. New York is 2-3 on a current homestand.

The Marlins have struggled mightily in the 2nd half (8-18), but with Saturday’s triumph they are 3-1 in their last 4 games. Miami has not won 4 games in a 5-game stretch since late June.

Yankees at Marlins projected starters

RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Eury Perez

Cole (10-3, 2.75 ERA) is tabbed for his 25th start of the season. He’s logged a 1.04 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 150 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 3 K 5-1 loss at Chicago White Sox Monday
• 2023 road stats: 3-2, 2.59 ERA in 62 2/3 IP across 10 starts
• Last 5 starts vs. Marlins: 2-2, 4.50 ERA in 32 IP (2015-17)
• The 4 R Monday against the Sox are the most he’s yielded in a single start since May 28; his 3 K Monday were his fewest in a game since May 23
• Has been buoyed by a .269 BA on balls in play and an 81% left-on-base rate (.246 BABIP with runners in scoring position)

Perez (5-4, 2.79 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has notched a 1.12 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 58 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 7 K in 5-2 loss at Cincinnati Reds Monday
• 2023 home stats: 3-1, 1.10 ERA in 32 2/3 IP in 6 starts
• Has never faced the Yankees
• Has been buoyed by a .266 BA on balls in play and an 88% left-on-base rate
• Recalled from Double-A Pensacola before his Aug. 7 start: was off the Miami roster for a month — pitching just twice in the minors — in an effort to tamp down the rookie’s workload

Yankees at Marlins odds

FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:02 a.m. ET.

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Yankees at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Marlins 4

Both starting pitchers in this game are likely a bit too far out over their skis with their surface numbers. And with better expectations.

PASS.

The Over is the best leverage play for this game. A Yankees -1.5 would bring value in the +145 range. PASS otherwise.

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The pitching here gets a 3-corner fade: both starters and the Yankee bullpen (a group living dangerously with a .267 BABIP and one that has allowed more frequent hard contact in recent weeks).

Perez’s 2nd start back could bring on some fatigue and mistakes. He’s up against a disappointing New York offense but one that had been hitting mistakes of late … until Saturday (.834 OPS Aug. 2-11).

Both offenses are capable of more. In August, Miami has scored just 3.55 runs per game. But that figure has been hoisted alongside an untenable 12-of-72 (.167) mark with runners in scoring position.

Look for this line to move toward the Over. BACK THE OVER 7 (-115) and look to cash on a good price.

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