New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

The New York Yankees (60-60) and Atlanta Braves (77-42) meet Wednesday to cap off a 3-game series. First pitch at Truist Park is slated for 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Atlanta leads 2-0.

New York has been outscored 16-3 in dropping the first 2 games of this series. The Yankees have lost 4 in a row overall and are 3-7 in their last 10 games.

The Braves are 8-1 over their last 9 games at home. Over that stretch, Atlanta has slashed .322/.401/.657 (1.059 OPS) while scoring 70 runs.

Yankees at Braves projected starters

RHP Randy Vasquez vs. RHP Charlie Morton

Vasquez (2-1, 1.89 ERA) is likely in line — though not confirmed as of 11 a.m. ET — for his 4th start and 5th appearance. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 through 19 IP.

• Last appeared in a game in a bulk-relief role Friday (3 2/3 IP, 3 H. 2 R, 1 BB, 2 K at Miami Marlins)
• Owns a 4.76 ERA, 1.54 WHIP in 75 2/3 Triple-A innings

Morton (11-10, 3.71 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 128 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 7 BB, 4 K in a 7-0 road win vs. New York Mets Friday
• 2023 home stats: 5-5, 3.90 ERA in 62 1/3 IP across 11 starts
• Last 5 vs. Yankees: 1-1, 2.57 ERA in 21 IP (2019-21)
• Walked a season-high 7 batters in his last start and owns an 8.0 BB/9 with a 5.84 ERA over his last 5 starts; his a 4.5 BB/9 for the season is his worst mark since his 2008 rookie season

Yankees at Braves odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:43 a.m. ET.

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Yankees at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Yankees 5

The pitching gray area should make us plenty tentative about taking a side in this one. Neither hurler has underlying indicators that match surface figures.

PASS.

With a high total and a lean to the Over, the Atlanta -1.5 (-115) action may draw some interest. However, figure enough value to the Yankee offense as to require more leverage (a price lower than -110 would make for a partial-unit play).

AVOID.

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Fading the pitching here and respecting the Braves’ abilities against right-handed pitching. Other available Yankee pitching options all come from the right side. The Braves own an MLB-best .836 OPS against righties.

Warm and humid conditions and a higher-elevation-than-you-think Atlanta ballpark are factors also. The last 56 Braves home games have seen the Over cash 35 times.

BACK THE OVER 10 (-105).

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