Newcastle United vs Brentford: Prediction and Preview

Newcastle are coming off three consecutive defeats as they prepare to face unbeaten Brentford. Here’s our Newcastle United vs Brentford prediction and preview ahead of this Matchday 5 clash in the Premier League.

• Newcastle are made narrow favourites by the Opta supercomputer, given a 39.8% chance of victory at St. James’ Park.
• Brentford have not lost in their first four Premier League games of the 2023-24 season, winning one and drawing three.
• Thomas Frank’s side were ahead in all three drawn games, meaning they have dropped six points from winning positions (more than any other Premier League team).

After a memorable 2022-23 season and starting their 2023-24 campaign with a resounding 5-1 win against Aston Villa, things looked very bright indeed for Newcastle United. However, three defeats on the bounce and a very tricky UEFA Champions League group draw have taken the wind somewhat out of Geordie sails of late.

Having lost to Manchester City, Liverpool and Brighton in their last three outings, Newcastle have been beaten in three league games in a row for the first time since March-April 2022; and have lost more games already this season than they did in their final 14 league matches last season (W9 D3 L2).

There is no need to panic for Eddie Howe’s men just yet, though. Their start was considered to be the toughest in the league, but they will have to rediscover the resoluteness that saw them concede just 33 goals in the Premier League last season (the joint-best defensive record along with champions Man City).

Much of that was on show in the first half of the campaign, though, as after keeping a clean sheet in six consecutive Premier League games between November 2022 and January 2023, Newcastle have only kept two clean sheets in their last 22 matches. Of the 17 sides to have participated in each of the last two Premier League campaigns, Howe’s side have kept the fewest clean sheets since the start of February (two).

Ready to punish any defensive lapses are Brentford, who remain unbeaten this season (W1 D3) and have only been beaten once in their last 11 games in the Premier League (W6 D4), which was a 1-0 defeat at Liverpool in May.

Brentford certainly like to get the ball forward and test the opposition, having played the third most progressive passes of any team in the Premier League this season (136), behind only Brighton (159) and Chelsea (153). The percentage of 7.3% of their 1,858 passes being considered progressive is the largest share for any side. They also have the second largest positive differential between expected goals (xG) for and against in the Premier League this season (+5.4) after leaders Man City (+6.2).

Many believed Brentford would miss the suspended Ivan Toney, but Bryan Mbeumo has stepped up to the plate, scoring seven goals in his last seven games in the Premier League, as many as he scored in his previous 55 appearances in the competition. Only Taiwo Awoniyi (nine) and Erling Haaland (eight) have scored more than the Cameroon international’s seven since the start of May.

Howe will be hoping to have Sven Botman back from an ankle injury, with the Dutch centre-back having missed the defeat at Brighton last time out, while Sandro Tonali may not be risked ahead of next week’s reunion with his former club AC Milan in the Champions League after missing Italy’s win over Ukraine in the week with a muscle problem. Elliot Anderson could be absent too after missing out on his first Scotland cap due to a knock in training, while Joe Willock remains out with an Achilles problem.

Joint top-scorers Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson should make the squad following time spent with their nations on international duty, while Bruno Guimaraes, Joelinton and Miguel Almiron all played for Brazil and Paraguay respectively across the South American World Cup qualifiers in midweek but should be in contention for a place in the starting XI.

Brentford are likely to still be without injured duo Josh DaSilva (hamstring) and Shandon Baptiste (shoulder), though Neal Maupay could make his second debut for the club after arriving on loan from Everton on transfer deadline day.

Newcastle do traditionally like playing against Brentford, having won seven of their last eight league meetings (D1) in a run stretching back to 1992, while they have scored 24 goals in those eight games. They also did the double over Brentford last season, with an emphatic 5-1 win at St. James’ Park followed by a 2-1 victory at the Gtech Community Stadium after coming from a goal down.

Brentford haven’t actually won a league game at St. James’ Park since September 1934, when they beat Newcastle 5-2. The London side have not won in their last five visits since then (D1 L4).

As mentioned, Newcastle’s season got off to a flier with a 5-1 thrashing of Aston Villa, before losing 1-0 at Man City, 2-1 at home to Liverpool and 3-1 last time out at Brighton.

Brentford started with a 2-2 draw at home to Tottenham, before winning 3-0 at Fulham. Further home draws against Crystal Palace (1-1) and Bournemouth (2-2) followed. They have won their last two away games in the Premier League, against Spurs (last season) and Fulham, and could win three in a row on the road for the first time in the top flight.

Although they remain unbeaten, Brentford have dropped the most points from winning positions of any side in the Premier League so far this season (six), with them leading in each of their three drawn games.

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

While Newcastle head into this clash as favourites, they are probably not as fancied as they would usually expect for a home game. They are given a 39.8% chance of getting back to winning ways by the Opta supercomputer.

The last time Newcastle lost four consecutive league games was in January 2021 under Steve Bruce (five). However, Brentford are more than capable of adding to Newcastle’s misery, and Thomas Frank’s men are judged to have a 31.2% probability of coming away from the north east with all three points, while the draw comes in at 29.0%.

Newcastle’s wobbly start has seen the supercomputer reduce their likelihood of repeating their top-four finish from last season. Since the start of the season, their chances have reduced from 24.8% to 16.7% in our Premier League predictions, while any hopes of the title are almost already extinguished (0.02%), albeit the same is true for almost every team not called Manchester City.

Brentford actually also have a 0.02% shot at winning the league, though maybe don’t overlook them for European qualification. The supercomputer gives them a 4.18% chance of qualifying for the Champions League, and a 4.82% chance of making the UEFA Europa League.

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