Newmarket Handicap: Form analysts taking on early favourite I Wish I Win

Form experts are looking to the bottom of the weight scale for the winner of Saturday‘s $1.5 million Group 1 Newmarket Handicap at Flemington.

James Cummings‘ star filly In Secret will carry 51.5kg in the 1200m sprint down the Flemington straight and firmed this week into $4.20 favourite with Betr.

She has replaced Peter Moody‘s Kiwi import I Wish I Win ($4.40), which will carry 56.5kg, at the top of the market.

Punters Inside Run host Matthew Campbell and the show‘s form analyst Simon O’Donnell both expect In Secret to replicate her dominant win at Flemington during the spring.

“Despite being narrowly beaten in the Surround Stakes (1400m) at Randwick last start, I still think she is the best three-year-old filly in the country and the drop back to just 51.5kg cannot be ignored, nor can the booking of Jamie Kah,” Campbell told this week‘s online episode of Punters Inside Run.

“She has drawn a similar barrier to when she destroyed them in the Coolmore on Derby Day so back to that distance is fine by me.”

Punters.com.au form analyst James Lamb has also identified a light weight as his best chance in the race.

“Lofty Strike ($9 with Betr) appeals on an each-way basis with only 52.5kg on his back,” Lamb said.

“His two runs back from a break have been outstanding and he’s drawn to go through his gears out wide.

“The weight (56.5kg) is the query with I Wish I Win.

“With the exception of Zoutori in an ordinary edition a couple of years ago, it generally takes a genuine star to win this race with 56.5kg or more and he’s not quite there yet.”

Campbell has tipped In Secret on top from Lofty Strike and I Wish I Win, O‘Donnell likes In Secret from Mazu and September Run, while Lamb has nominated Lofty Strike to win from In Secret, I Wish I Win and top weight Private Eye (58kg).