NFC North Division Odds: Picks, Predictions, and More

After their 8-2 record in the second half of last season, the Detroit Lions enter 2023 as the favorites to win the NFC North. The Lions haven’t won the division since it was the “NFC Central” back in 1993, but are hopeful they will win their first NFC North title this season.

Despite the high expectations for the Lions, the three other teams in this division cannot be ignored. The Minnesota Vikings are coming off a 13-4 season, and while they might be due for some regression after winning 11 one-score games, they should still have one of the .

Aaron Rodgers might be gone in Green Bay, but the Packers are high on Jordan Love becoming their franchise QB, and he has some young weapons around him and a defense filled with former first-round picks. The Chicago Bears, meanwhile, made several moves this offseason to build around Justin Fields after finishing with the worst record last season.

In our NFC North preview, we break down the division’s betting odds, give out picks and predictions, and more.

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NFC North Division Preview

The Lions had one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL last season, and they might be even better in 2023. They signed former Bears RB David Montgomery to replace Jamaal Williams and added RB Jahmyr Gibbs and TE Sam LaPorta in the draft.

Both rookies should give Jared Goff more help in the passing game along with star WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. Detroit’s offensive line remains one of the best in the NFL, and if their defense can improve from a year ago, the Lions could very likely be in the postseason.

The Vikings somehow always managed to find a way in close games last season, but can that luck continue? Even if you don’t expect them to win 13 games again, there’s still enough room for optimism that they can compete for a playoff spot in a weak NFC.

Minnesota will have a full season of T.J. Hockenson, who was a big boost to their offense midway through last season, and added Jordan Addison to replace Adam Thielen to play alongside Justin Jefferson. This team will only go as far as Kirk Cousins and their defense can take them.

This will be the first time since 1991 in which the Packers’ starting quarterback isn’t a future Hall of Famer. After spending the last three seasons backing up Rodgers, the organization has a lot of belief in Love becoming their next franchise QB.

Expect head coach Matt LaFleur to lean more on the ground game this season as they have one of the best running back tandems in the NFL in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Defensively, if they can improve from their 31st-ranked rushing defense from last year, they could be one of the stronger units in the NFC.

If Fields can take that next step in his development as a passer, the Bears could make some noise in this division. They gave him a lot more help in the offseason, particularly on the offensive line, and acquired WR DJ Moore in their trade down from the No. 1 pick.

On defense, Chicago signed six players in free agency who are expected to be starters. But have they made enough improvements to a pass rush that recorded just 20 sacks a year ago?

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NFC North Predictions

Katz: Despite having not accomplished anything in years, the football universe has already anointed the Lions as the new kings of the NFC North. This team will be fun. This offense will be fun. But are they better than the Vikings? I don’t think so.

I also don’t think Love or the Packers will be nearly as bad as many think. And I’m not a believer in Fields taking a Jalen Hurts-like leap as a passer. Here’s a long shot that I think is worth it.

Pick: NFC North exact order — Vikings, Lions, Packers, Bears (+1100) 

Blewis: I agree with some of what Katz just said. I think the Lions are prematurely being crowned as NFC North champions, and their odds reflect that. While I think they’re the best team in the division, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see them finish below first place.

Detroit’s weapons outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown are unproven, and this defense still has a long way to go. The Lions are being overvalued in a division that is far more open than it gets credit for. So where is the value in picking a team to win the NFC North?

It’s not the Vikings, who are due for some massive regression after having perhaps the luckiest season in NFL history last year. I think the Bears are at least a year away and would require a major jump from Fields as a passer to get there.

But what about the Packers?

A lot of people are writing off Green Bay because they no longer have Rodgers. It makes sense on the surface, except he wasn’t any good last season.

Rodgers’ 6.8 yards per attempt were the second-lowest of his career, and his QBR of 41.3 was by far his worst. For context, his QBR ranked 26th in the NFL last season — one spot behind Matt Ryan and one spot ahead of Russell Wilson. Yet, the Packers still went 8-9 and had a better point differential than the Vikings.

Love doesn’t need to be prime Rodgers to lead this team to a division title, as he has a great running game and potentially strong defense to fall back on. Another factor working in the Packers’ favor is that they have the third-easiest schedule in the NFL this season.

Green Bay shouldn’t be favored to win the NFC North by any means, but they have the longest odds at DraftKings, which seems like a nice buy-low opportunity.

Pick: Packers to win the division (+400 at DraftKings)