2023 NFL Futures: Breaking down and betting on the Chicago Bears win total
We’re approaching the worst part of the yearly betting schedule, as there’s not much to bet on in the dog days of Summer. So, there’s no better time to get to work on 2023 NFL Futures.
I think the Bears are criminally undervalued entering 2023, and I’m looking to bet them six ways to Sunday in the upcoming season. And there’s no better place to talk about all the value in the Bears than here at the Chicago Tribune.
Let’s start with my first bet on the 2023 Bears: Over 7.5 wins.
Odds via FanDuel, current at time of writing and subject to change.
- Read our expert rankings of the best sports betting sites here.
After finishing last in the NFC North, the Bears are primed for a breakout season. A team goes worst-to-first in their division almost every season in the NFL (see: 2022 Jaguars), and I think the Bears could do it this year.
You should see a monster increase in production, starting with a winning record.
The Bears finished 2022 last in Defense DVOA. So, they responded by picking up two top-10 linebackers, Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards, and two above-average defensive linemen, DeMarcus Walker and Andrew Billings.
The Bears are still somewhat weak in the secondary, but a competent front seven will take the pressure off the third level. Also, Eddie Jackson still has more production left after finishing 13th among 88 safeties in PFF’s grades last year.
Circling to the offense: Justin Fields looked frazzled for 16 games last season. He was sacked a league-high 55 times in 2022 and responded by scrambling for over 1,000 yards (that’s a slight exaggeration, as many of those plays were designed runs, but you get my point).
Again, the Bears responded. They brought in guard Nate Davis and drafted right tackle Darnell Wright after adding key skill position weapons in DJ Moore, Robert Tonyan and D’Onta Foreman.
The Bears should be able to run the ball efficiently again – they finished 2022 12th in Rush Offense DVOA with the most yards in the NFL -- and Fields is still one of the better quarterback options in the league.
But considering the additions, Fields and the aerial attack could improve this season. Even if the Bears could field a merely bad or average passing attack this year (after finishing 30th in Pass Offense DVOA last year), it would open up even more for the already-deadly ground game.
Now, allow us to dream big.
Fields has the arm and the legs to succeed as a highly-athletic quarterback in a league trending toward mobile passers. If he takes a classic year-three jump behind a better pass-blocking offensive line alongside better weapons, the Bears could be a dangerous offense.
The Bears are the only team in the NFC North I don’t have serious concerns about:
- The Lions should win the division, but they’re at the absolute peak of their value in the betting markets.
- The Vikings are due for a monster regression season after winning 13 games with a negative point differential.
- The Packers should struggle to adapt in a post-Aaron Rodgers world.
There’s a reasonable chance the Bears could go 4-2 in the division this season, although that’s a lofty expectation.
The real value for the Bears comes in their out-of-division schedule. The Bears got a last-place schedule, so they picked up home games against Denver, Carolina, Atlanta, Las Vegas and Arizona, alongside road games against Tampa Bay and Washington.
Per Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis, the Bears have the sixth-easiest projected strength of schedule in the NFL for 2023. And by the opposing team’s win totals, the Bears have the third-easiest strength of schedule.
There are some tough challenges, including a Week 3 meeting with the Chiefs in Kansas City and a Week 8 meeting with the Chargers in L.A., but everything else is breaking Chicago’s way.
The Bears finished 3-14 last season but underperformed. Their Pythagorean record and Football Outsiders’ DVOA expected wins had them closer to 5-12.
So, if you put together the expected positive regression, improved roster and much-improved schedule, the Bears should make a big move up the standings in 2023. These Bears are primed to shatter expectations, including their win total.
We can find eight wins on Chicago’s schedule, so take advantage at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The Pick: Chicago Bears over 7.5 wins (-118)
