NFL Betting 101: How PFF discovers and defines edges

PFF Greenline uses a model-based approach to derive game outcomes based on myriad team and situational factors. PFF mobile app takes it a step further, assigning letter grades to bet based upon its edge.

PFF Greenline is a betting tool that predicts the outcome of football games based on various factors. It predicts a probability for how likely each team is to win. At the end of each week during the football season, PFF will update this story with the biggest NFL and College edges.

The Tennessee Titans are playing the Houston Texans in the 2022 season. The Texans are +108 on the moneyline, while the Titans' are -130.

PFF Greenline has a Win Probability for every game based on its machine-learning models. PFF mobile app assigns a grade to each bet based upon the value or edge it gives to the bet. The Titans' Win probability is 60.5%, but the Break Even percentage is 56.4%. It is a positive expected value bet and one we should place based the Pff Greenlines' outlook for the game.