NFL Predictions 2023: Bet Jalen Hurts to win NFL MVP
Since 2001, 23 NFL MVP awards have been handed out.
Twenty of those went to a quarterback. The last non-quarterback to win the award was Adrian Peterson in 2012, so 10 straight MVP awards have gone to quarterbacks.
Of those 20 NFL MVPs handed out to quarterbacks, 15 went to either Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes.
So, there are essentially three groups of players that win the MVP award:
The occasional running back (LaDanian Tomlinson, Sean Alexander)
A Hall of Fame quarterback
A breakout quarterback for the breakout offensive team
If you’re trying to find value in the NFL MVP betting markets, you want to target the third group of players. These are the players that hold actual betting value in this market.
Let’s dig into that third group of players.
NFL MVP Winners
Here are the five quarterbacks that comprise that third group (since 2001):
All these guys won only one MVP in a season where the team finished with double-digit wins and a top offense by points per game (PPG).
Almost any high-powered offense comes with a statistically elite quarterback. These five quarterbacks stuffed the stat sheet week in and week out, finishing among the top quarterbacks in total yards and touchdowns (rushing and passing included).
So, we’re looking for two things when betting on this market:
A team that can win double-digit games
A team with a high-powered offense fueled by its quarterback
Which quarterbacks could fit that mold in 2023?
NFL MVP Predictions: Best bet
My favorite NFL MVP wager is on Jalen Hurts, available for 12-1 at FanDuel.
I have some concerns about the Eagles.
Super Bowl hangovers are no joke. The defending Super Bowl runner-up is 6-13-2 toward their win total over, and the Eagles will face a significantly tougher strength of schedule (they had the easiest strength of schedule last season and will face the sixth toughest this year).
Philly went 7-1 in one-score games last year, and that close-game luck could flip.
However, the Eagles have the best top-to-bottom roster in the league. They’re one of only six NFL teams with a double-digit win total.
We could reasonably expect the Eagles to regress from 14 to 10 wins, keeping them in the double-digit win territory. Aaron Schatz’s DVOA projections have them for exactly 10 wins.
They should continue to dominate on offense. They have the best offensive line in the NFL, an elite rushing attack and two unbelievable wide receivers (A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith).
The 2022 Eagles were third in PPG (28.1), DVOA (15%) and Expected Points Added (EPA) per play (.100).
We could expect some regression from those superstar efficiency numbers, but I’m also expecting an increase in volume.
The Eagles blew out almost every team they faced last season while running roughshod over an easy schedule. With a tougher schedule, they’ll have to play more four-quarter football this season. Hurts may need to throw the ball more, pushing it downfield late in games.
Let’s get to Hurts.
In their MVP seasons, Newton and Jackson combined elite passing production with rushing production. The NFL quarterback model is shifting toward more athletic prospects with dual-action ability (see: Anthony Richardson going fourth overall in the NFL Draft).
Hurts perfectly fits that mold. The Eagles have one of the deadliest dual-action attacks in the NFL, and their quarterback dominated with his legs in this offense.
In fact, Hurts’ 2022 was statistically similar to Newton’s 2015 and Jackson’s 2019.
Per Chris Raybon of The Action Network:
Cam Newton, 2015: 3,837 pass yards, 35 pass TD, 636 rush yards, 10 rush TD (4,473 total yards, 45 total TD)
Lamar Jackson, 2019: 3,127 pass yards, 36 pass TD, 1,206 rush yards, 7 rush TD (4,333 total yards, 43 total TD)
Jalen Hurts, 2022: 3,701 pass yards, 22 pass TD, 760 rush yards, 13 rush TD (4,461 total yards, 35 total TD)
Hurts finished second in MVP voting last year. He could post similar numbers for a double-digit win Eagles team and win the award this season.
The key will be more passing touchdowns. But again, I expect an uptick in passing volume with the tougher schedule.
And even as he has to pass more, Hurts will still produce rushing touchdowns thanks to quarterback sneaks (something the Eagles were elite at last season) and rushing yards due to more scrambling opportunities (Hurts averages 7.8 yards per scramble).
The play: 2023 NFL MVP – Jalen Hurts (+1200) at FanDuel
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