NFL MVP Odds Update: Jalen Hurts with second-best odds to win award

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is playing some good football.

If it weren’t for his confounding three-interception performance against the Jets in Week 6, the Eagles would be 9-0.

Still, they’re 8-1, in line for the first overall NFC playoff seed, and Hurts’ statistical profile is elite.

The fourth-year quarterback is fifth among NFL starting quarterbacks in passing yards, seventh in passing Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, second in rushing EPA per play, second in completion percentage over expected (CPOE), and 10th in Pro Football Focus’s offensive grades.

Generally, the NFL MVP award goes to a star quarterback on the league’s best team and/or highest-scoring offense. The Eagles have the NFL’s best record, the second-highest scoring offense (by points per game) and the fourth-most efficient (by EPA per play).

So, naturally, Hurts currently has the second-best betting odds to win the coveted award at most major sportsbooks, only behind Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

Here are the full and current odds to win the 2024 NFL MVP award, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Concerning betting value, let’s discuss Hurts and some other potential contenders.

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On paper, Hurts looks like a perfect NFL MVP. As discussed, his resume is excellent, and his team is winning.

He could potentially take care of the ball better, as he’s thrown eight interceptions on 12 turnover-worthy throws after finishing last season with six and 12, respectively. That said, he’s thrown for 15 touchdowns on 20 big-time throws, both top-five marks, so I wouldn’t expect too much “regression” in his production. Plus, he adds so much value as a rusher (316 rush yards, 4.9 yards per carry, seven touchdowns, 61.4% Success Rate).

Instead, my worry is the schedule.

Per DVOA, the Eagles have played the 24th most difficult strength of schedule in the NFL. They’ve also overperformed, recording 5.8 estimated DVOA wins and 5.8 estimate Pythagorean wins behind the league’s second-highest third-down conversion over expected rate (9%).

The Eagles have their bye this upcoming Sunday, Nov. 11. But over the following five weeks, they’ll have road games against the Chiefs, Cowboys and Seahawks and home games against the Bills and the 49ers.

Those five teams hold a combined record of 27-15. If the season ended today, only the Bills would miss the playoffs. Only the Seahawks rank outside the top-10 teams in DVOA.

Hurts and the Eagles are about to run the gauntlet. If there were ever a time for Hurts to regress – perhaps Hurts throws a few more picks, or the Eagles struggle on late downs – and the Eagles to drop a few games, this is that time.

However, Hurts could also use this gauntlet to prove he’s the rightful MVP winner.

He will battle two other potential MVP winners during the stretch, Mahomes and Josh Allen. If Hurts and the Eagles beat those two and survive this death stretch without too much bleeding, Hurts would be the runaway MVP favorite.

I don’t know how the next few weeks will play out. However, if you do, I have two recommendations:

Firstly, if you think the Eagles can win three to four of the next five games, I’d bet Hurts will win the MVP right now.

Hurts should probably be favored to win the award over Mahomes right now, given Mahomes and the Chiefs have looked shakier than usual. The two-time MVP is on track to post career lows in passing yards per game (271.3), touchdown percentage (5.1%), and yards per attempt (7.3).

So, with that in mind, you’re getting decent value on Hurts at over 3-to-1, and he’ll lock up the award in the coming weeks.

But secondly, if you think the Eagles are overvalued and due for extra losses, I’d advise waiting and seeing with Hurts.

If he struggles or the Eagles drop a few games, his odds will shoot upward. Then, you could buy low on him to win the award right before he plays the Cardinals and Giants (twice) over the season’s final three weeks.

Surely, the Eagles will win three straight to end the season, and Hurts will put up big numbers on those two horrendous defenses. And if that happens to coincide with the Eagles clinching the No. 1 overall NFC seed, Hurts will look great in MVP voters’ eyes.

I don’t think it’s a bad time to buy low on Brock Purdy.

Despite the Niners’ three-game losing streak, where Purdy committed a pathetic five interceptions on nine turnover-worthy throws, Mr. Irrelevant still leads all NFL starting quarterbacks in EPA per play (.29), Success Rate (58%), DVOA (42.9%), and yards per attempt (9.1).

All but one quarterback MVP over the past 10 years have finished in the top two in the NFL in EPA+CPOE composite metric. Purdy is still first, Allen is second, and Hurts is third.

Behind Purdy, the Niners still lead the NFL in Offense DVOA, rank first in Pass Offense DVOA and fourth in points per game. While the Niners have lost three straight games, they lost the first two by a combined seven points and still have the third-most estimated DVOA wins in the NFL (6.3).

Plus, the Niners picked up a huge defensive boost by trading for Washington’s Chase Young.

The Niners should bounce back, and Purdy’s metrics are still elite. As written, winning NFL MVP is about being a star quarterback for the league’s best team and/or offense, Purdy and the Niners should be in that conversation by season’s end.

I think we’re getting a reasonable price on Purdy at over 30-to-1 – that number should come down if the Niners round back into form.

However, the key will be avoiding turnovers. Purdy was relatively turnover-prone at Iowa State, and while he’s managed to avoid that in Kyle Shanahan’s system, he’s shown flashes of his old pick-throwing ways over the past month.

But, if Purdy re-finds his original NFL self, the one that made only five turnover-worthy throws through the season’s first five weeks, he’ll be in the MVP conversation at the end of the year. The current odds don’t reflect that.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.