Super Bowl Betting Trends 2024: What We Can Expect for 49ers vs. Chiefs

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01 February 2024

Super Bowl Betting Trends 2024: What We Can Expect for 49ers vs. Chiefs

Check out the 2024 Super Bowl betting trends for Sunday's big game between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, breaking down trends to help you shop for the best NFL odds.

Bettors spend time and money trying to figure out the best wagers to make on the Super Bowl. Luckily, we have found some edges via the Super Bowl trends to help guide your 49ers vs. Chiefs prediction.

Keep in mind that trends are to be taken with a grain of salt. If a bettor sees that the Chiefs have won eight straight games they might think the Chiefs should easily win a ninth straight game, but another bettor might see the same trend and think the Chiefs are due to lose.

Our best Super Bowl betting sites are also well aware of these trends when setting the Super Bowl odds. Trends highlight your own belief in a wager or market, so understand that before diving into them.

With that said, here are the best Super Bowl betting trends to know to help your Super Bowl predictions as the 49ers take on the Chiefs on Sunday, Feb. 11.

2024 Super Bowl betting trends

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49ers (-2) vs. Chiefs game trends

Date: Sunday, Feb. 11, 2024
Time: 6:30 p.m.
How to watch: CBS
Venue stats: Allegiant Stadium - 38.8 ppg; 3-6 O/U

The Super Bowl will be played in Allegiant Stadium located in Paradise, Nevada, and home to the Las Vegas Raiders. The Chiefs are accustomed to playing in this stadium, going at least once a year for a few years now while the travel isn't too burdensome for the 49ers.

The venue shouldn't dictate an advantage for either team, although the point total typically goes Under in Allegiant Stadium. Keep in mind that most, if not all, of those games involved the Raiders so it's tough to utilize the venue stats for this game between two championship-level teams.

Super Bowl moneyline trends

Kansas City has won three straight meetings.
Kansas City has won six straight games as an underdog.
Kansas City has won the 1H in four straight games against the NFC West.
San Francisco has won six of eight games coming off a win.

The moneyline might be a good play for any Kansas City bettors out there, with such a short spread and plenty of trends to back them. The most notable, which has hit for Kansas City the last two games, is the Chiefs' SU record as an underdog.

The Chiefs are now 6-0 SU over their last six games as underdogs, something they hit against the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens in the last two weeks, respectively. San Francisco has had to come from behind in both games to reach the Super Bowl, so if you're betting in this market, the value and trends align with Kansas City.

Super Bowl spread trends

San Francisco has failed to cover the spread in six straight games when facing the AFC West as the favorite.
San Francisco has failed to cover the spread in three straight games.
Kansas City has covered the spread in eight of nine games vs. teams above .500.
Kansas City has covered the spread in four of five meetings.

More trends support Kansas City covering the spread. If you can get the +2 points. that might be a better option than the moneyline. The trends above speak for themselves, as Kansas City is very comfortable ATS-wise against good teams, while San Francisco is on a current ATS skid (0-3).

One trend worth noting, but not really applicable to this game, lies with the 49ers. San Francisco has seen the road team cover in 12 straight games. Both teams are traveling to Vegas, so it doesn't apply, but the official road team is San Francisco for those wondering.

Super Bowl total trends

San Francisco has gone Over in four of six games.
San Francisco has gone Under in 11 of 14 playoff games.
Kansas City has gone Under in five of six games.

The total is a bit more murky than the other markets already discussed, as it could really go either way based on what we're reading. San Francisco is currently on an Over run, although it historically goes Under in the playoffs.

The venue stats point to an Under play as well, while the Chiefs are currently on an Under run themselves. If picking between the two, it seems the Under is a better play but this market seems to have the least amount of conviction in it based on trends and stats.

Super Bowl player props trends: 49ers

Christian McCaffrey has scored a TD in six straight playoff games
Christian McCaffrey has seen six or more catches in three straight games vs. the AFC
George Kittle has seen 115 or more receiving yards in three straight games vs. the AFC
Brock Purdy has gone Under 0.5 INTs in four of five playoff games.
Elijah Mitchell has scored a TD in three of four games.
Brandon Aiyuk has seen 75 or more receiving yards in five of six games vs the AFC

The best value on the board lies with Elijah Mitchell scoring with Super Bowl anytime touchdown scorer odds of +650. It's easy to see him get in the end zone this game, but Christian McCaffrey is also an expensive -210 to find the end zone. Although he should, that's a bit too expensive to play between the two backs.

Aiyuk's total is just above 60 yards, so possibly going Over is a good play while Kittle's total is just above 45 yards. Kittle has hit 100 yards in three straight games against the AFC so the books offering more than half of that isn't a terrible play either.

Super Bowl player props trends: Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes has thrown 285 or more yards in three straight games against San Francisco.
Patrick Mahomes has thrown two or more TDs in six of seven games vs the NFC.
Travis Kelce has scored a TD in eight of nine playoff games.
Travis Kelce has seen 75 or more receiving yards in five straight games as an underdog coming off a win.
Isiah Pacheco has scored a TD in seven straight games.
Isiah Pacheco has rushed for 65 yards or more in four straight games as an underdog.

Kelce to score a TD is a bit expensive at -120, although his yards total of 69.5 might be worth a look for the Over. Pacheco has scored in seven straight games but is a bit too expensive as well at -125.

Mahomes hasn't thrown an INT in six straight playoff games, getting +100 to go Under 0.5 in the game. That might be the best player prop value on the board, as even getting Mahomes to toss two TDs is -135.