NFL Week 11 Steelers vs. Browns odds, player props, top sports betting promo code bonuses

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The narrative of the AFC North rivalry game between the Steelers and Browns changed drastically after the news of Deshaun Watson’s season-ending injury hit the airwaves. The guaranteed absence of the $230 million man had a seismic impact on the betting lines, taking the Browns from 4-point home favorites to 1-point underdog.

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Just as Watson appeared to be getting his mojo back, disaster struck. Luckily, the Browns’ success has not been predicated entirely on having Watson behind center. Yes, the Browns are 5-1 when Watson starts. However, while an inarguably devastating blow to the organization, the Browns’ elite defense is good enough to cope without their starting quarterback’s presence.

The Browns and Steelers are tied for second in the ultra-competitive AFC North, both with 6-3 records. Despite being out-gained in each of their nine contests, the Steelers have enjoyed improbable, most likely unsustainable, fourth-quarter success, covering the spread in 15 of their previous 20 contests.

While the Steelers’ reliance on fourth-quarter opportunism may be unworkable in the long term, the defense deserves plaudits for putting them in the position to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Pittsburgh’s defense has forced 19 turnovers, the most in the NFL.

Meanwhile, Cleveland has coughed up the ball 18 times, an NFL worst.

That said, this game has all the makings of a dogged, one-possession slugfest that will probably be decided by turnovers. Dorian Thompson-Robinson will get the nod for Cleveland, with the rookie pivot starting just one previous game, the 28-3 Week 4 loss at home to the Ravens.

He threw three interceptions in that contest, completing 19 of 36 attempts for 121 yards. While a minute sample size, those numbers don’t bode well for the Browns. The Steelers are 6-1 when intercepting at least one pass this season, which could prove decisive on Sunday.

The Steelers’ defense is also disarmingly stubborn in the red zone, forcing six turnovers (the NFL’s most) and allowing apasser rating of just 52.9 (the NFL’s best). Since Week 7, the Steelers’ red-zone defense has allowed a passer rating of just 21.9, another NFL best.

Thompson-Robinson finding solutions for the Steelers’ impenetrable red-zone defense is a seemingly inconceivable notion. The Steelers, despite their offensive insipidness, should find a way to prevail in another nip-and-tuck, closely contested battle.

Backing Amari Cooper to amass 43 receiving yards or more might turn a few heads, especially considering Watson’s absence. However, Cooper has busted through the 43-yard barrier in six of nine contests thus far.

While two of his three under performances (Week 4 and Week 7) came without Watson behind center, he notched 108 yards in Week 6 against San Francisco and 89 yards against Seattle in Week 8, also without the Browns’ No. 1 pivot.

In addition, rookie quarterbacks tend to rely heavily on their primary targets, opting for the most assured and reliable option. Look for Thompson-Robinson to have tunnel vision where Cooper is concerned, increasing the likelihood of this prop paying out.

Also, the Steelers allow the sixth-most passing yards per game (248.4), further reinforcing the allure of Cooper surpassing 42.5 receiving yards.

Akin to last week against the Packers, this game is tailor-suited for Chris Boswell to hit at least two field goals. And the longer, plus-money odds only add to this prop’s appeal. Boswell has hit at least two field goals in six of his previous eight contests, including the last two.

His only miss on 18 field goal attempts came against Jacksonville in Week 8. Not only is he almost unerringly accurate, but points will be at a premium in Cleveland, markedly increasing the probability of Boswell’s number being called.

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