NFL Week 16 betting advice: Eagles vs. Giants pick and props
Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games each weekend this season. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com [thephillygodfather.com].
New York Giants (5-9) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-4), 4:30 p.m. Monday
The Line: Eagles minus-13/Total: 42.5
What is the line telling you:
Originally, the Eagles opened as 10.5-point favorites, and has since moved three total points in the market. The total opened at 44 and has dropped to 42.5. There is real solid money on the Eagles this week. If you’re going to bet it, bet it now, because this line could move up to as high as 17 points by kickoff on Christmas day. The Eagles need to win desperately here against a Giants team that is mathematically out of the playoff race. The Giants have nothing to play for here, while the Eagles are still fighting for playoff positioning with an opportunity to win the NFC East again. That will be up for grabs if the Eagles do not win out. The Giants’ offense ranks No. 31 in yards per play (4.2) and defensively the Giants rank No. 26 (5.6), so expect the Eagles to be able to move the ball and alleviate the heat the coaching staff has been taking on during this three-game losing streak. Expect the Eagles to blow this team out to ease the stress the media and fanbase are bringing on. The Eagles can not barely squeak out a win here.
Bottom line: If you get the Eagles for anything less than 14 points, you’ll probably cover the spread. This is a game the Eagles can’t just win, they have to win convincingly. The Eagles will come out really fast in this game.
Eagles game props
A.J. Brown anytime TD +100
Jalen Hurts anytime TD -160
Jalen Hurts over 230 passing yards
What is the line telling you:
The Giants can’t stop the pass. The Giants can’t stop the run. Jalen Hurts will have a big day passing.
AROUND THE NFL
Dallas Cowboys (10-4) at Miami Dolphins (10-4), 4:25 p.m. Sunday
The Line: Dolphins minus-1/Total: 49.5
What is the line telling you:
Consecutive road games in the NFL are never easy. The good news for the Cowboys is that Tyreek Hill still has not practiced and he might not play this week. There is an outside shot he does play. If you look at the things the Cowboys do very well, they defend the pass, sack the quarterback and do not turn the ball over. They’re ranked in the top five in each of those metrics. If you look at the teams the Dolphins lost to this season, the Chiefs rank No. 1 in pressure rate, the Bills rank No. 6, the Titans rank No. 9 and the solid defensive line the Eagles have.
Bottom line: The Dolphins do not match up well against the Cowboys. After the Cowboys’ embarrassing loss to the Bills, they have something not prove here, showing that they can actually win on the road. We like the Cowboys here and feel they will win the game outright.
Baltimore Ravens (11-3) at San Francisco 49ers (11-3), 8:15 p.m. Monday
The Line: 49ers minus-5/Total: 47.5
What is the line telling you:
This is going to be the best game to watch this week. You have three players in the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson, and the Niners’ Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey that are the potential NFL MVP. The price opened as the Niners being 6-point favorites. As of now, the line has dipped to five. This game is a little difficult to handicapped, since they are both coming in there with identical 11-3 records. Both teams have given up the least amount of points in their respective conferences. The Ravens have a four-game winning streak. The Niners have a six-game winning streak. Both teams rank in the top 10 in turnover margin.
Bottom line: Giving the Ravens five points is a little too much. Lamar Jackson as an underdog against the spread is hard to beat. He’s covered 11 out of the last 13 times. The 49ers definitely have a great defense, and a solid pass rush, but they still rank No. 14 in that metric. With Lamar Jackson being as elusive as he is, he’ll give them a ton of headaches. San Francisco, on the other hand, has struggled against quality defenses this season. We like Baltimore plus the points and they have a chance to win this game on the moneyline.
(Betting lines are subject to change.)
The Philly Godfather can be followed on twitter @Phillygodfather [twitter.com] & his website is www.thephillygodfather.com [thephillygodfather.com]. Watch the best gambling show there is, The Sports Betting Show, 6 pm-8 pm ET live every Thursday available on Jakib YouTube, Action YouTube and Sirius XM channel 159.
Joseph Santoliquito is a hall of fame, award-winning sportswriter based in the Philadelphia area who has written feature stories for SI.com, ESPN.com, NFL.com, MLB.com, Deadspin and The Philadelphia Daily News. In 2006, he was nominated for an Emmy Award for a special project piece for ESPN.com called “Love at First Beep.” He is most noted for his award-winning ESPN.com feature on high school wrestler A.J. Detwiler in February 2006, which appeared on SportsCenter. In 2015, he was elected president of the Boxing Writers Association of America.
