NFL Week 7 betting advice: Eagles vs. Dolphins pick and props
Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games each weekend this season. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com [thephillygodfather.com].
Miami Dolphins (5-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-0), 8:25 p.m. Sunday
The Line: Eagles minus-2.5/Total: 52
What is the line telling you:
Originally this line opened with the Eagles minus-2.5 with a combined total set at 52 and this game will come down to whether the Eagles’ defensive line can get to Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to slow him down, because the Eagles have serious issues behind that defensive line. The Eagles also have mounting injuries, which isn’t good, considering that the Eagles’ defense will be facing an offense that averages 37 points and 498.7 yards per game. The Eagles’ defensive line is good enough to mask the deficiencies on the back end and Miami’s offensive line is banged up. Tagovailoa makes fast decisions. He has the quickest average time to throw at 2.32 seconds, while Jalen Hurts has the second-slowest release time. Miami will have problems holding off the Eagles’ pass rush. The other question mark is how healthy Lane Johnson is.
Bottom line: Take the Eagles minus-2.5.
Eagles game props
Eagles opening drive touchdown plus-195.
Jalen Hurts passing yards over 254.5 yards
What is the line telling you:
The Eagles started well against the Jets, who have a far better defense than Miami, so they should start well against Miami. You can double your money on that, plus Hurts throwing against a Miami defense that is ranked No. 20 in opponent yards per pass attempt.
AROUND THE NFL
Cleveland Browns (3-2) at Indianapolis Colts (3-3), 1:00 p.m. Sunday
The Line: Browns minus-2.5/Total: 40
What is the line telling you:
The Browns have the best defense in the NFL. They made the San Francisco 49ers struggle last week and the Niners have the second-best offense in yards per play metric, so this will be hard for the Colts’ mediocre offense to stay with the Browns. This Browns’ defense is too strong for Gardner Minshew.
Bottom line: We like the Browns here minus-2.5 and on the moneyline.
Los Angeles Chargers (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-1), 4:25 p.m. Sunday
The Line: Chiefs minus-5.5/Total: 48
What is the line telling you:
We’ll dance with the devil here, since these two teams know each other exceptionally well. It is a divisional game, and if the Chargers had a coach with half a brain other than Brandon Staley, we would suggest them on the moneyline. The Chargers are playing for their playoff lives here. The Chiefs have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL and Austin Ekeler is healthy. Both teams rank among the top five in the yards/per play metric.
Bottom line: We don’t see the Chiefs pulling away here. Take the Chargers and the points.
(Betting lines are subject to change.)
The Philly Godfather can be followed on twitter @Phillygodfather [twitter.com] & his website is www.thephillygodfather.com [thephillygodfather.com]. Watch the best gambling show there is, The Sports Betting Show, 6 pm-8 pm ET live every Thursday available on Jakib YouTube, Action YouTube and Sirius XM channel 159.
Joseph Santoliquito is a hall of fame, award-winning sportswriter based in the Philadelphia area who has written feature stories for SI.com, ESPN.com, NFL.com, MLB.com, Deadspin and The Philadelphia Daily News. In 2006, he was nominated for an Emmy Award for a special project piece for ESPN.com called “Love at First Beep.” He is most noted for his award-winning ESPN.com feature on high school wrestler A.J. Detwiler in February 2006, which appeared on SportsCenter. In 2015, he was elected president of the Boxing Writers Association of America.
