NFL Week 18 betting advice: Eagles at Giants pick and props
Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games each weekend this season. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com [thephillygodfather.com].
Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) at New York Giants (5-11), 4:25 p.m. Sunday
The Line: Eagles minus-4.5/Total: 42
What is the line telling you:
Originally, the Eagles opened as 6-point favorites, with the combined total set at 45. Since then, we have seen the total drop to 42 and the number drop to four. We don’t expect a lot of points in this game. Right now, 60-percent of the public money is on the New York Giants. The public has lost faith in betting this Philadelphia Eagles team. They have lost four of the last five games and seem to have fallen off a cliff. As of right now, they have the 12th-best point differential in the league, and with an 11-5 team, outscoring your opponents by 22 points is one of the worst point differentials in NFL history. Since Tyrod Taylor came in during the first game against the Eagles, the Giants played the Eagles close. The Giants had a chance to beat the Los Angeles Rams last week but missed a field goal at the end. The Rams came in as one of the hottest teams at the right time of the season.
The Eagles are a team in trouble. Basically, people have tapped out on the Eagles. They have been one of the worst winning teams covering the spread (7-7-2). The recreational bettor places wagers on recency bias, on what they see the last two weeks. Professional gamblers look at injuries, they see how the true numbers on these teams are skewed. The Eagles are ranked 23rd in the league in turnover margin (minus-7) and the Giants, believe it or not, are ranked tied for No. 4 (plus-9) going into this game. The Giants have had a tricky schedule and Taylor does not turn the ball over. Jalen Hurts, on the other hand, has been a turnover machine and the Giants would like to play spoiler here. You can’t invest in the Eagles. They just lost as a 13-point favorite to the Arizona Cardinals. The early sharp money took the Giants plus-6, pushing the number down.
Bottom line: The Eagles may come out this week and surprise everyone. We don’t think so. Take the Giants and the under. The Eagles may not play their starters for the entire game.
Eagles game props
Darius Slayton over 46.5 receiving yards -115
Tyrod Taylor over 200.5 passing yards -110
What is the line telling you:
We don’t know who is going to play and who isn’t going to play for the Eagles. The Giants will play Slayton, and Taylor will want to look as good as possible.
AROUND THE NFL
Buffalo Bills (10-6) at Miami Dolphins (11-5), 8:20 p.m. Sunday
The Line: Bills minus-2.5/Total: 48.5
What is the line telling you:
Miami is banged up and Buffalo is getting stronger. Buffalo is really healthy and on fire, winning four-straight and five of their last six games.
Bottom line: The move here is the Bills on the moneyline or anything under the magic number three. Buffalo had no business losing to the Eagles. Buy the half point or the ticket could be Buffalo minus-155.
(Betting lines are subject to change.)
The Philly Godfather can be followed on twitter @Phillygodfather [twitter.com] & his website is www.thephillygodfather.com [thephillygodfather.com]. Watch the best gambling show there is, The Sports Betting Show, 6 pm-8 pm ET live every Thursday available on Jakib YouTube, Action YouTube and Sirius XM channel 159.
Joseph Santoliquito is a hall of fame, award-winning sportswriter based in the Philadelphia area who has written feature stories for SI.com, ESPN.com, NFL.com, MLB.com, Deadspin and The Philadelphia Daily News. In 2006, he was nominated for an Emmy Award for a special project piece for ESPN.com called “Love at First Beep.” He is most noted for his award-winning ESPN.com feature on high school wrestler A.J. Detwiler in February 2006, which appeared on SportsCenter. In 2015, he was elected president of the Boxing Writers Association of America.
