NFL Wild Card Weekend: Bad Super Bowl Bets, Good Prop Bet
It was Thomas Tusser, in his 1573 Five Hundreth Pointes of Good Husbandrie — which was a book about farming written in verse — who first said, “A fool and his money are soon parted.”
It’s a real humdinger of a book.
Anyway, today, I, Jeff Edelstein, in my 2024 wild card column, doth sayeth: Don’t be a fool and bet into a terrible market on one of America’s top sports betting apps.
Yes, I’m looking at you, DraftKings, and your terrible “anytime touchdown in the Super Bowl” market.
Now granted, you have added “all bets action” to the page offering these bets, but boy, oh boy, if we’re going to try and appeal to the average bettor, let’s at least speak the King’s English here and say, “Hey dummy, even if the player you bet on doesn’t make it to the Super Bowl, you’re still on the hook. And while we’re here, these are abysmal bets at worse odds.”
Why are these bad bets? Well, take the shortest odds: Christian McCaffrey at +115 to score in the Super Bowl. Why bet that when you could instead bet the 49ers at -125 to make the Super Bowl? (And pssst: You can get them at -120 at BetMGM.)
But that’s just the favorite: Tony Pollard is +475 to score in the Big Game but the Cowboys are +350 to make the Super Bowl at FanDuel. Now I’m not a math whiz, but if I’m going to take part in such sports betting today, I’ll take the Cowboys and Ieave the extra cash on the table.
Go down further, it gets even more ridiculous.
Kyren Williams is +2200 to score a Super Bowl touchdown. The Rams are … +2200 at Caesars to win the NFC.
And then there’s Najee Harris. DraftKings has him at +4500 to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl. The Steelers are +6000 to make the Super Bowl at FanDuel. Um ….
Now, I don’t really mean to be mean to DraftKings here, but really: These are terrible, no-good bets. Fool, meet money.
On to wild card week, where the following bets are also probably causing Thomas Tusser to nod his head …
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
Now we’re 0-18. The freaking Jaguars did me in last week — had the Colts, Bills, and Giants otherwise. Double turds.
All right, come on. This is crazy. Going to keep things simple with a moneyline parlay. Well, a six-team moneyline parlay. Shut up. Leave me alone. It’s not easy hitting a +1000 or more parlay.
Anyway: Browns, Chiefs, Bills, Cowboys, Rams, Bucs. Comes out to +2119 at DraftKings.
Rationale as follows: Browns are better coached, have a better defense, and dominate the line on either side. The Chiefs and Bills will win in brutal weather games at home. The Rams’ conservative approach will win out when Dan Campbell makes a questionable move. The Cowboys will wallop the Packers, and the Bucs will win a game of attrition against the very broken Eagles.
The on-paper, no doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose
Up to 8-9 with these at BetMGM, with the Bears, Giants, and Jets all getting it done last week. Are we going to tease three playoff games? You bet we are. Are we blowing through zero? Mmmm-hmmm. Chiefs +1.5, Bills -3.5, and Cowboys -1. Easy money. (HA!)
Favorite that makes me nervous
Has to be the Eagles. I’m honestly surprised they’re field goal road favorites. Not that Tampa is any great shakes, but seriously: The Eagles look broken.
Player props I like
Went 0-2 last week, down to 20-37. You shouldn’t listen to me.
Except … if Sam LaPorta is out for the Lions, I’m slamming Jahmyr Gibbs receiving props.
After dealing T.J. Hockenson last year, the Lions witnessed a significant rise in DeAndre Swift’s receiving prowess. He achieved over 24 yards in six out of 10 games and recorded eight games with three or more receptions. This season, the upgraded Swift equivalent is Jahmyr Gibbs. You can find his receiving yards at 20.5 with -115 odds at PointsBet/Fanatics or at 19.5 yards with -122 odds at FanDuel. Additionally, his reception number stands at 3.5 with +114 odds at DraftKings.
Did I Win The DraftKings Milly Maker?
No, but I was in 74th place at around 6:15 ET. Finished nowhere near there, but it was fun for a minute.
My mortal lock five-star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week
Finished the regular season at 9-9 with these on the sports betting sites, thanks to the Giants. Honestly, I’m thrilled I managed to get to .500. This week, I love the Cowboys giving a touchdown at home. I think they’re going to stomp the Packers, who have not played an offense anywhere near as dominant as that of the Cowboys this year. I’m even going to double up and lay two touchdowns. Love the ‘Boys.
