NHL Best Bets & Player Props (1/26/23): Mikko Rantanen, Kyle Connor & More!

We have a nine-game slate on tap tonight sort of split between some good heavyweight matchups such as Tampa and Boston and some more lopsided ones featuring two teams who are currently favored beyond minus 400 on the moneyline in Colorado and Calgary as they face the Ducks and Blackhawks respectively. There are no teams on any back-to-backs tonight also, as we inch closer to the all-star break and the March third trade deadline. As always, I will lead things off with my favorite game lines to bet and finish with my favorite player props. The game lines will tell you the worst odds I would play to.

NHL Game Lines To Target

Colorado Team Total Over Four at +104 to -110

I’m not sure which direction the line will move, but right now the Avs sit as -420 favorites against this poor Anaheim team. Regardless, I’m not looking to get involved with anything juiced like that on any of my betting cards any day of the year. Instead, let’s look to target the most appealing aspect of this game which would be this potent and recently high-performing Avs offensive unit against this bottom-of-the-league defensive unit in the Ducks. I’m grabbing a half-unit play on over four goals for Colorado and probably considering sprinkling on an over 4.5 team total. This is a very good example of a spot to ditch the horribly juiced lines to find better odds and still back one of the three hottest and best overall teams against easily a bottom-three team that happens to also give up more goals per game than any team in the NHL.

Buffalo Sabres +167 at Winnipeg to +150

Let’s shake things up a bit and find an underdog that holds some value tonight. As good as Winnipeg has been at home this season at a 19-6, the Sabres have been very solid on the road themselves, holding a 14-7 record. Of all the dogs on the board, I strongly feel this one holds the most value in terms of the difference between where the odds sit versus perhaps where they should sit. Over the last ten games, the underlying expected goals for percentage per 60 has been very close between these two, and over this sample, the Sabres have been slightly under in actual goals versus expected whereas the Jets have been slightly over in actual goals compared to expected.  Although I am not fond of it being their third game in the last four nights, give me the Sabres here tonight at great odds.

Boston Bruins -103 to -115 at Tampa Bay

In one of the probably more exciting matchups of the night, I prefer the slightly better team. Both teams have outscored their expected goals numbers over the last ten-game sample, with Boston higher in both. One underlying area that shows us perhaps a little separation here is the Bruins sitting 9 in expected goals for percentage per 60 at 9 in the league while Tampa has been 21 over the same stretch. Although I have a tremendous amount of respect for what both of these teams do on the ice, I’m inclined to side with the B’s tonight and I think this line will move their way as we get closer to puck drop. 

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NHL Player Props to Target

Mikko Rantanen over 3.5 Shots on Goal -135 versus Anaheim

A few things to take in here. First, Anaheim is consistently in the bottom two in terms of shots allowed versus right-wingers. Although Rantanen has only gone over this mark once in the last five games, the encouraging thing was against Vancouver he got there, which defensively their team profile is certainly similar to the Ducks. Our free projections also have Rantanen at four shots tonight, which is very nice to see as well. I’m locking this in and don’t mind the over 2.5 for Rodrigues as well as eating the juice and over 4.5 on MacKinnon’s shots tonight at about the same odds versus a play-against team when it comes to shot props.

Mike Hoffman over 2.5 Shots on Goal +140 versus Detroit

The recent injury shelving Cole Caufield for the season is an absolute bummer for this Habs team and fans who appreciate his talent. Although I thought we would get a top-line role and that has not happened at even strength, it very well could change. Regardless, in the last twenty games the Redwings have been among the worst in terms of giving up shots to left-wingers, trending downward from what they were earlier in the season. Hoffman should continue to get top unit power play time where he truly excels as he is what I would call a pure shooter. Detroit doesn’t take the most penalties, but it only takes one or two to go a long way for us in cashing this ticket. I don’t mind a sprinkle on his anytime goal as long as you’re getting something like +175 or better.

Kyle Connor over 3.5 Shots on Goal -110 versus Buffalo

This is probably one of the most common writeups I’ve had all season. We all absolutely love Kyle Connor for his talent and consistency. I also like that in this matchup I expect some pace and the Sabres are in the bottom third in terms of how many shots they allow to left-wingers as well, which should shape up well for him again tonight. Let’s not fancy play or overthink it and lock in Connor as one of our favorite player props this evening. The anytime goal sprinkle is certainly worth a look as well.

Don’t forget to shop your bets and wager responsibly. Best of luck tonight!

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