Nicol's Notes: Sacred looks the stand-out bet at York
GROUP 1 WINNER
Al Husn has led the way throughout for my horses to follow this season, with the four-year-old improving on each start during the campaign.
She was only a handicap winner coming into this year, but has since taken a Listed race at Ayr in May before defeating Nashwa in the Group 3 Hoppings Stakes at Newcastle in June.
As we know, she then confirmed that form with a gritty success in the Group 1 Qatar Nassau Stakes at Glorious Goodwood earlier this month and I thought she was given a beautiful ride by Jim Crowley. Always in prime position in second place, she took up the running two furlongs from home and responded generously to edge out Above The Curve, with Nashwa and Blue Rose Cen unable to land a blow in what was a tactical affair.
She’s done her job now in winning a Group 1 and admittedly, I’d say that would have been an ambitious goal at the start of the year but this daughter of Dubawi has continued to improve beyond all measure, having already progressed from a handicap mark of 82 to a rating of 100 at the end of last season.
Roger Varian and his team have done an amazing job with her.
Keeping it in the family, I had a positive update from my Racing TV colleague, George Baker, about her Shamardal half-brother and fellow Horse To Follow, Yotarid. George, who is involved with the Ed Walker yard, tells me he is back in training after a setback and that we are likely to see him before the end of the turf season. It is late enough in the campaign now but, as evidenced by Al Husn, he is one to keep on-side going into 2024 as a four-year-old.
EBOR WEEK
Along with Royal Ascot, the Sky Bet Ebor Festival is always my highlight of the Flat calendar and here are three horses I’ll be looking out for this week:
STARLUST
Numbers-wise, Ralph Beckett is on course to enjoy the best British season of his training career. He saddled 104 winners in 2020 and has 82 so far during this campaign, with 43 of those coming since the beginning of July.
I’m therefore taking a second look at all his runners at present as he simply could not have his string in better form and I like the chances of Starlust in the closing six furlong nursery on Wednesday afternoon. Ryan Moore rarely gets the leg up for the yard and his booking certainly catches the eye aboard the Zoustar colt.
The juvenile took a keen hold on tiring ground at Goodwood last time out when finishing a respectable second to stablemate Serried Ranks, which ended his winning sequence, but I think the combination of better ground here and the jockey upgrade can see him return to winning ways.
Starlust may not have appreciated the going here when second at Goodwood
SEA THEME
I wonder how many times we will hear the William Haggas-loves-to-target-York narrative this week. Having worked for three years at Somerville Lodge, I would suggest that while any York winner is special, especially Baaeed’s success in last year’s Juddmonte International, the meeting is business as usual and all about finding the right horses for the right races.
The stable is lacking a little in depth this year compared to last, which is naturally going to happen with a Baaeed-shaped hole in the squad, but Relief Rally and Sacred will spearhead a select team and I wouldn’t overlook the lightly-raced Sea Theme if declared for the Listed Galtres Stakes on Thursday.
Haggas has a good record in the race, winning the 2013 and 2014 renewals with Our Obsession and Queen Of Ice respectively, as well as Domino Darling finishing a nose-second to Forbearance two years ago.
Sea Theme produced a debut full of promise when third at Salisbury in June and improved on that massively when winning at Doncaster a month later. I was seriously impressed with her performance on Town Moor and a subsequent entry in the Group 1 Fillies & Mares on Champions Day at Ascot tells me that being pitched straight into Listed company here is likely to be within her compass.
CHILLINGHAM
It would be rude not to try and crack the feature race of the week and I think Chillingham could run a huge race for fledgling trainer, Ed Bethell, in Saturday’s Sky Bet Ebor.
Much of the focus is on stable star, Regional, set to line up in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes on Friday but winning the Ebor would be just as special for the yard and the four-year-old is better than he has shown in his last two starts.
He was too keen when fading into fourth in the Copper Horse at Royal Ascot and then found himself unbalanced when striking the front at Ripon in July, lugging into the rail late on and allowing the winner to reel him in close home.
I would be a little concerned about very quick ground as I do think he is best with an ease underfoot, so I am holding fire until declarations on Thursday morning. This may result in slightly shorter odds than the current 16/1 which is available, but this will be offset by the generous place terms which are sure to be on offer with some firms.
ON THE RIGHT TRACK
I know some people have little interest in keeping a list of horses to follow or using a tracker such as the Racing TV Tracker as it then creates unconscious bias and almost an obligation to back any of them when they do run. This may be true in some part but there is where discipline comes in and I mainly see a tracker as a tool just to make sure you don’t miss any horses when they are eventually scheduled to run, particularly in France or abroad, which is so easy to miss.
Other times it could just be a midweek outing and you haven’t had the chance to study the cards due to work or other things. It would therefore have been easy to miss King Lear winning with any amount in hand at Nottingham last Tuesday or State Occasion running in last Wednesday’s Listed Upavon Stakes at Salisbury.
As mentioned in my last update, I had been waiting patiently for State Occasion to re-appear and it was certainly worth the wait as she travelled like a dream throughout and duly scored in convincing fashion at odds of 6/1.
State Occasion returns to action in style! @RalphBeckett's charge was last seen finishing fourth in a red-hot renewal of the Middleton Stakes and strikes in the Listed @BritishEBF 40th Anniversary Upavon Fillies' Stakes under @Rossaryan15 �� pic.twitter.com/FH4CITLSCz
— Salisbury Racecourse (@salisburyraces) August 16, 2023
She has been waiting for quicker ground this summer, with the ground turning soft prior to two intended engagements over the last month or so and she remains a horse to keep in your tracker.
An entry in the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera shows the regard in which she is held but the likelihood of an easy surface at Longchamp means that she will have to go elsewhere and the Filly & Mare Turf at the Breeders’ Cup in early-November is where I’d be aiming at as her main target for the rest of the year.
As a footnote, this adds further substance to the previously-highlighted form of the Middleton stakes at York in May, where Free Wind ran out a cosy winner. The Gosden mare has disappointed twice since, racing on extremes of the ground on both occasions, and I’d be happy to forgive her ahead of the Group 1 Pertemps Yorkshire Oaks on Thursday.
NICOL’S NAP
It will come as no surprise to regular readers that I am putting forward Sacred as my best bet week in Saturday’s Group 2 City Of York Stakes.
I have always maintained that she is a Group 1 animal but when the only European Group 1 over seven is the Prix de la Foret on desperate ground, it means this filly has had to go in search of other races over an inadequate trip to get that elusive top-level success.
And she very nearly did so when finishing second in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes over six furlongs at Royal Ascot when last seen, hitting the front at the furlong pole but just missing out in heart-breaking fashion.
Kept fresh for this race (her record off a 60-plus-day break reads: 2-1-1-5-1), everything looks in her favour as she returns to her best trip with the weather set fair for the rest of the week on ground that already features “Firm” in the description.
At 6/1, she is the obvious shortener in the market, and I would recommend taking current prices before declarations on Thursday morning.
