Aaron Nola 2023 futures: Cy Young, strikeouts, wins odds
Former LSU star pitcher Aaron Nola has gone on to have plenty of MLB success having established himself as the ace of the Philadelphia Phillies’ pitching staff.
Nola is now eight seasons into his MLB career and appears to be in his prime entering his age 30 season, and he’s coming off a strong 2022 in which he finished fourth in the National League Cy Young voting.
The year before wasn’t as smooth for Nola with an ERA over 4, but he bounced back with a clean 3.25 ERA in 2022 and recorded the top strikeout-to-walk ratio in MLB.
Nola also finished in the top five in strikeouts last season, so we’ll break down his odds for the 2023 NL Cy Young Award, to lead the league in strikeouts and to lead in wins since he’s in the mix for all three.
AARON NOLA 2023 FUTURES
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook, official odds partner of bet.NOLA.com
To win the NL Cy Young: +1400
2022 wasn’t the only time that Nola finished near the top of the NL Cy Young voting chart, as he finished third in the voting in 2018.
Nola’s 2.37 ERA in 2018 paired with his elite strikeout totals normally would’ve been good enough to win the award, but Jacob deGrom won it instead thanks to a 1.70 ERA.
Nola is currently +1400 to win the 2023 Cy Young at Caesars Sportsbook, which are the seventh-best odds behind only Justin Verlander (+500), Corbin Burnes (+500), Sandy Alcantara (+550), Max Scherzer (+1000), Spencer Strider (+1000) and Max Fried (+1200).
The three pitchers that finished ahead of Nola in the 2022 Cy Young voting were Alcantara, Fried and Julio Urias, and while Nola wasn’t quite at that Cy Young level, he’s been close now in three of the past five seasons.
This could be the year Nola takes home the award by combining his elite strikeout totals with an ERA under 2.50, and while that won’t guarantee anything as we saw in 2018, the oddsmakers have Nola priced to where he could be an attractive play for bettors.
Nola isn’t quite up there with Verlander and Scherzer since he’s had more bumpy stretches in his career, but he’s at a prime age and has the talent to where he offers value at +1400.
To lead MLB in strikeouts: +1500
Nola was a strikeout machine in 2022 like he’s been throughout his career, as he finished with 235 strikeouts on the season, which was good for fourth-highest in MLB.
Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes and Carols Rodon were the only pitchers who recorded more strikeouts, and it was the fourth time in the past five seasons that Nola finished in the top 10.
It was also Nola’s second top five finish in the past three years, although one of those was the shortened 2020 season, but the numbers show that Nola is one of MLB’s elite strikeout artists.
Nola is tied with Rodon for the seventh-best odds to lead MLB in strikeouts, trailing only Cole (+500), Burnes (+800), Scherzer (+1000), deGrom (+1000), Dylan Cease (+1200) and Strider (+1200).
Much like Nola’s Cy Young odds, there appears to be value here, but this one will be slightly tougher since he’s competing against the entire MLB as opposed to just the National League.
To lead MLB in wins: +1400
Wins are a tough stat to predict on a yearly basis, as someone can pitch as well as Nola did last season and not have many wins to show for it.
Nola only recorded 11 wins last season despite throwing over 200 innings for a Phillies team with a quality lineup, which proves how volatile wins are considering they’re out of the starting pitcher’s control more times than not.
Nola’s breakout 2018 season was much kinder for him in the wins department, as he finished in the top 10 with 17 wins and was only four behind Blake Snell’s MLB-high 21.
The odds don’t appear to offer much value though at +1400, as only Cole (+700), Burnes (+800), Rodon (+1200) and Scherzer (+1200) have shorter odds than Nola.
Nola’s teammate Zack Wheeler could be worth a shot instead at +2500 even though Nola projects to have the better season, as Braves starting pitcher Kyle Wright led MLB in wins last year even though his teammate Max Fried finished second for the Cy Young.
