UFC 286 Odds: Maia-O'Neill prediction, pick, how to watch
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 will continue its Main Card action from London, England with this matchup between ranked Women’s Flyweights looking establish themselves once again in the division. UFC Veteran and women’s trailblazer No. 8 Jennifer Maia will take on the undefeated prospect No. 12 Casey O’Neill.
Jennifer Maia is 20-9-1 in her MMA career and has gone 5-5 in her 10 UFC fights. Maia began her career over a decade ago and has been a mainstay in women’s MMA for a substantial time. She’s faced the ‘who’s who’ of the Flyweight Division and has challenged for a title. Since 2020, she’s split her six fights at 3-3 but won her most recent bout against Maryna Moroz. The 34-year old will look for another win on a main card spot. Maia stands 5’4″ with a 64-inch reach.
Casey O’Neill is undefeated at 9-0 in her career and has won all four of her UFC fights. Her most notable wins came against Antonina Shevchenko and Roxanne Modaferri. While her competition isn’t comparable to what Maia has faced, O’Neill will have youth and newfound health on her side as she returns to the octagon after ACL surgery. O’Neill stands 5’6″ with a 69-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC 286 Odds: Jennifer Maia-Casey O’Neill Odds
Jennifer Maia: +142
Casey O’Neill: -184
Over (2.5) rounds: -350
Under (2.5) rounds: +250
How to Watch Jennifer Maia vs. Casey O’Neill
TV: UFC PPV
Stream: ESPN+ UFC PPV
Time: 5:00 p.m. ET/ 2:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Jennifer Maia Will Win
Jennifer Maia is a very well-rounded fighter that can do it all. She’s been around MMA for over a decade now and knows all the tricks to the game. She’s a very active boxer and stays on her toes while constantly moving her head. She darts in and will throw with a lot of power in the opening minutes of the fight. She loves to work with short uppercuts and sharp overhands against opponents, so look for her to go back to that game plan here against O’Neill. Maia will have the strength advantage as well, so look for her to land some damaging shots throughout the fight.
Maia will have the slight disadvantage in reach here, which could be significant as she likes to throw her shots from range. She’ll have to be careful and not over-commit to many of her strikes as O’Neill is a good counter puncher. Look for Maia to use her strength against the cage and wear on the spirit of O’Neill as she tries to grind out a decision win as the underdog.
Why Casey O’Neill Will Win
Casey O’Neill has shown her proficiency as a striker in the octagon and has very good numbers to back it up. She’s landing 8.65 significant strikes per minute on opponents while absorbing less than four. Notably, she landed 229 significant strikes in her last fight against Roxanne Modaferri, but was still held to only winning by a split decision. While her striking is look as good as ever, the one knock she may have is that her strikes don’t land with a ton of power. Against a tough chin like Maia’s this could pose as a problem.
The biggest question for O’Neill is how her knee will hold up after having it surgically repaired last year. She’s looked good in her training sessions and would not be coming into this fight if she didn’t feel safe on it. She’ll have to be very active in her striking once again to take down Maia. She’ll be at a slight disadvantage on the ground but can threaten with creative attacks off her back and has great grappling transitions.
Final Jennifer Maia-Casey O’Neill Prediction & Pick
While Maia has more submission wins, Casey O’Neill will have the edge with her offensive grappling here and should test the cardio with her opponent with it. O’Neill is also slightly longer and strikes with a better feel from distance, so she may have the advantage and managing the spaced between them during this fight. Maia is a legend in her own right, but this seems like a great fight for Casey O’Neill to work her way back after an injury and take down a top-10 opponent – let’s go with her for the win.
Final Jennifer Maia-Casey O’Neill Prediction & Pick: Casey O’Neill (-184)
