North Carolina (UNC) vs. West Virginia Prediction, Preview, and Odds
The North Carolina Tar Heelsand West Virginia Mountaineerswill play on Wednesday in the Duke's Mayo Bowl. Kickoff from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC, is at 5:30 p.m. ET.
UNC (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS, 6-5-1 O/U) lost 39-20 to NC State in its season finale. The Tar Heels lost four of their last six overall, finishing 4-4 in conference play.
WVU (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS, 8-4 O/U) defeated Baylor 34-31 in its season finale. The Mountaineers won four of their last five games, finishing 6-3 in conference play.
The Mountaineers are 6.5-point spread favorites and the game total is 54.0 points.
Injury Report
Tar Heels: WR Kobe Paysour, TE John Copenhaver, TE Bryson Nesbit, CB Alijah Huzzie, and S Will Hardy are out. WR Nate McCollum is questionable.
Mountaineers: OL Zach Frazier and RB CJ Donaldson Jr. are out. WR Preston Fox is questionable.
Transfer Portal & NFL Draft Opt-Outs
Tar Heels: TE Kamari Morales, WR Tychaun Chapman, WR Andre Greene, CB Tayon Holloway, DT Kedrick Bingley-Jones, and LB Sebastian Cheeks transferred. QB Drake Maye, LB Cedric Gray, C Corey Gaynor, and WR Tez Walker will sit out the bowl game to prepare for the draft.
Mountaineers: WR Cortez Brahm, WR Jeremiah Aaron, WR Ja’Shaun Poke, RB Justin Johnson Jr., S Hershey McLaurin, DL Mike Lockhart, S Lance Dixon, S Christion Stokes, and CB Andrew Wilson-Lamp transferred.
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UNC is stout in the red zone
UNC couldn't sustain its momentum down the stretch, losing games to Virginia, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and North Carolina State. It wasn't quite the finish Carolina fans hoped for after the team started 6-0. With starting QB Drake Maye off to the NFL, along with stud receiver Tez Walker (41 receptions for 699 yards and seven TDs in eight games), the Heels' offense will look a lot different in the Mayo Bowl. Who will step up on Wednesday?
North Carolina averaged 36.6 points (15th) and 503.9 total yards (4th) this season, including 306.8 passing yards (8th) and 197.1 rushing yards (17th). It converted 49.0 percent of its third downs (10th) and scored on 88.6 percent of its red zone trips (31st).
The Tar Heels' defense gave up 27.1 points (74th) and 405.4 total yards (98th) per game this season, including 242.3 passing yards (101st) and 163.1 rushing yards (89th). They had 27 sacks and 12 interceptions. UNC's opponents converted 38.8 percent of their third-down attempts (62nd) and scored on 71.4 percent of their trips to the red zone (5th).
WVU ranked 15th in third down conversion rate
WVU tied for fourth place in the 14-team Big 12 after being picked to finish last, qualifying for its third bowl under fifth-year head coach Neal Brown. The Mountaineers opened the season with a lopsided loss to Penn State but only lost three more games, one of which ended on a Hail Mary touchdown. Can they build on their success with a bowl victory?
West Virginia averaged 31.6 points (39th) and 438.2 total yards (27th) during the regular season, including 203.8 passing yards (94th) and 234.3 rushing yards (3rd). It converted 39.8 percent of its third-down attempts (15th) and scored on 83.3 percent of its red zone trips (73rd).
The Mountaineers' defense gave up 27.5 points (78th) and 384.4 total yards (72nd) per game, including 239.9 passing yards (93rd) and 144.5 rushing yards (49th). They had 26 sacks and nine interceptions this season. WVU's opponents converted 39.2 percent of their third downs (67th) and scored on 83.3 percent of their trips to the red zone (60th).
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Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
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In a matchup between a highly-motivated team that overachieved vs. an unmotivated team that underachieved, I'm betting on West Virginia to win and cover. The absences of Maye and Walker take the Heels from favorites to underdogs, giving the Mountaineers a significant advantage. With WVU committed to coach Neal Brown for another year, I feel confident his team will come to play, taking advantage of UNC's depleted roster.
I anticipate West Virginia running the football right at the Heels' 89th-ranked run defense, pushing the football down the field as they have all season (15th in third-down conversion rate). With two players who accounted for 700-plus rushing yards, WVU will rush for 150-plus yards on Wednesday, controlling the time of possession and putting extra pressure on the UNC offense to make the most of its possessions. Backup QB Conner Harrell (21 sacks) won't be able to keep pace with the Mountaineers.
Prediction: Mountaineers -6.5
Full-Game Total Pick
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Rating:
West Virginia dominated on the ground this season, averaging 234.3 rushing yards (3rd). That plan of attack allowed it to control time of possession, holding the football for 33:27 on average, the fifth-highest TOP in the country. Even with one of the best QBs, North Carolina ranked 99th in average time of possession (28:36). With an inexperienced backup taking over under center, the Heels are unlikely to hold the football for more than 25 minutes on Wednesday. I anticipate this leading to a low-scoring affair, as UNC doesn't have the weapons or motivation to play with WVU.
Prediction: Under 54
Mike Briggs is a passionate sports fan and writer, earning his B.A. in Journalism. In 2020, he moved across the country from New Jersey to San Diego to satisfy his lifelong obsession of living near an MLB stadium. As a proud MSU basketball supporter, Mike believes he's learned a lot watching coach Tom Izzo lead the Spartans to Big Ten titles and Final Fours regularly. He's also well-read on the NBA, having a subscription to SLAM magazine, the famed "basketball bible," since he was a teenager. Mike spends his free time strategizing futures bets and researching opportunities to make a few bucks on tonight's game. You can follow Mike on Twitter @BriggsWrites for sports betting, DFS, and stock trading tips.
