Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets odds, spread and best bets for Game 1

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The NBA Finals get started at 8:30 pm EST on Thursday, June 1 in Denver, Colorado. The Nuggets are installed as heavy favorites in the Game 1 Heat vs Nuggets odds. After nine days of rest, is Denver the best bet?

The Nuggets are -360 favorites on the moneyline and -8.5 on the spread for Thursday’s Game 1 contest. The total for this NBA Finals Game 1 matchup is set at 219 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Miami will need to reverse their recent fortunes against Denver to have a chance in this series. They lost both meetings this season, 124-119 in December and 112-108 in February. They’ve now lost six in a row in recent seasons against Denver, as well as 9/10.

Denver finished atop the Western Conference during the regular season at 53-29, which was also good enough for the fourth-best record in the league. The Nuggets needed just five games to get past the Timberwolves in the first round, before taking care of the Suns in six games during the Western Conference Semifinals.

Against LeBron James and the Lakers in the West Finals, Denver swept aside Los Angeles 4-0 with Nikola Jokic winning the Western Conference Finals MVP. Jokic is also the heavy -360 favorite to be the NBA Finals MVP. Miami’s Jimmy Butler, Eastern Conference MVP, is second on that list at +330.

With Game 4 taking place way back on May 22, the question will be if the Nuggets enter Game 1 either fresh and rested or rusty.

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Miami has made an improbable run to the Finals being the 8 seed in the East, just the second 8 seed ever to do so.

They first upset the 1-seed in the Bucks 4-1, before taking down the 5-seed Knicks 4-2. Miami jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals against 2-seed Boston, before seeing the Celtics fight all the way back to tie the series 3-3 and force a game seven. With Jayson Tatum getting injured early in Game 7 and Butler going off for 28 points, the Heat kept alive the streak of no NBA team coming back from 0-3 in the playoffs and won 103-84.

Both Miami and Denver have been lights-out from three-point range during the playoffs. Denver ranks 1st (38.6%) and Miami 2nd (38.5%). That’s been a marked improvement for the Heat who ranked 27th in three-point accuracy during the regular season.

Miami has been first in shooting wide-open three-point attempts this postseason. However, that’s an area that Denver has limited allowing, giving up the fewest such attempts in the playoffs.

That’s not the only area Miami has stepped up their play in though during the postseason. They’ve improved their offensive efficiency from 113.3 (25th) to 115.6 (8th) from the regular season to playoffs.

If you were betting on the Heat ATS during the regular season you were losing money hand over fist as they were 30-49-3 ATS. But in the playoffs they’ve been 13-5-0, cashing the most ATS tickets for bettors.

Even without the injured Tyler Herro, Miami is getting it done with big games from many secondary sources. Seven players have averaged double-digit points during the playoffs. Caleb Martin has averaged 14.1 PPG in the playoffs and had over 20 points in 3/7 games against the Celtics.

Gabe Vincent scored double-digits in five of the six games he played in the series, including a 29-point performance in Game 3.

The Nuggets only have six players who averaged double-digit points this postseason, but two of those have averaged nearly 30 points per game. Jokic leads the team in points (29.9), rebounds (13.3) and assists (10.3), while Jamal Murray is right behind with 27.7 PPG.

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Whoever you think will win Game 1 in your Heat vs Nuggets picks, as well as further games in this series, it’s worth noting that moneyline winners in the NBA Finals are on a run of 47-2-2 ATS in the past nine postseasons. That number was 6-0 last year. Since 2020, home teams and favorites in Game 1s are also 7-2 ATS.

The rest versus rust question for the Nuggets can be tackled by looking back at other historical instances of this. Since 2005, when playing with more than a week of rest, teams are 18-9 ATS.

Further ATS trends show that Finals home favorites of 4.5 points or more are 18-8-1 ATS since 2013.

The Heat were underdogs in six of seven games against Boston and were 5-2 ATS in the series. So they’re certainly capable of stepping up and winning outright or at least keeping games close when lined as dogs.

But in Game 1, I’ll side with the well-rested Nuggets in my Heats vs Nuggets picks until we see how the Heat respond to their grueling seven-game series a few days ago with the Celtics.

Pick: Nuggets -8.5 (-110)

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