Nuggets vs. Heat Game 4 predictions, player props and same-game parlay to target

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On the surface, it might seem a bit overdramatic to proclaim that Game 4 of a playoff series that one team is leading 2-1 is a must-win scenario for the squad that is trailing in the set. However, anyone with even a modicum of familiarity with the NBA Finals knows exactly how vital victory is for the Miami Heat over the Denver Nuggets in Game 4 of this best-of-seven series.

Since the birth of the NBA in 1946, just one team has rallied to win the NBA Finals after falling behind 3-1 in the series. No one has to tell Cleveland sports fans which team that was. It was the LeBron James-led Cleveland Cavaliers who stormed back from 3-1 down to defeat the Golden State Warriors in the 2016 NBA Finals.

That being the case, the Heat won’t be wanting to play with that kind of fire. Decisive 109-94 losers in Game 3 on their home court, Miami must get even with a Game 4 victory, or this series might be over and done quite quickly.

Oddsmakers, though, aren’t seeing that as the projected outcome. It’s the visiting Nuggets who are being set as 3.5-point away favorites. Tipoff for Game 4 is 8:30 p.m. ET at the Kaseya Center. Catch the broadcast of the game on ABC.

Much like the oddsmakers, the people are turning off the Heat. The NBA public betting trends are weighted heavily toward the Nuggets. As -3.5-point road favorites, Denver is garnering 81% of handle and 80% of bets in the public spread splits. The Nuggets are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine games against Miami.

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The -160 chalk, Denver is also drawing 69% of handle and 57% of bets in the moneyline splits. Denver is both 8-1 straight overall and 8-1 SU in the last nine games when facing the Heat.

Looking at the total of 211 points, the public is leaning toward the over. It’s pulling 67% of handle and 63% of bets. This even though the under has hit in six of Miami’s last seven games and six of Denver’s past nine games.

At the outset of the NBA Finals, the assessment was that the 1-2 punch that Denver possesses in center Nikola Jokic and guard Jamal Murray would be too much for the Heat to shut down. In Game 3, that certainly was the case.

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Jokic and Murray made history by becoming the first teammates to record triple-doubles in an NBA Finals Game. Former NBA MVP Jokic finished with the first 30-point, 20-rebound, 10-assist triple-double in NBA Finals history. Murray contributed 34-10-10 to Denver’s cause.

Seeking to become the first No. 8 seed to win an NBA championship, the Heat looked listless and low in energy during the first game of the series played on their home floor. Miami looked overmatched, coming up second best too often in battles for both loose balls and 50-50 balls. Jimmy Butler led Miami with 28 points, but grabbed only two boards and dished out a minimal four assists.

Pick: Denver Nuggets -3.5 (-110).

Nuggets guard Bruce Brown endured a quiet Game 3 performance. He scored five points, had two rebounds and nary an assist. Here’s the thing about Brown, though. He’s seldom quiet two games in a row.

Caesars Sportsbook is offering 15.5 as the total on Brown’s combined points, assists and rebounds in Game . He went over that number in Game 1 (17) and Game 2 (16). Take the over on this play for Game 4 at odds of -115.

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If Miami is going to get back into this series, the Heat will need Butler to go off. Bet365 is setting the prop on Butler’s combined Game 4 points and rebounds at 32.5. He hasn’t got there yet in this series, but has improved his number each game, progressing from 20 to 25, to 30. Roll with Butler to keep growing that total and play the over at a betting line of -115.

In assembling a Denver vs. Miami same-game parlay for Game 4, we’re going to begin by fading the public and go with the under on the total of 211 points at a betting line of -110.

Next, we’ll add to that a play on Butler to finish with over 26.5 points at odds of -115. Together, this same-game parlay provides a betting line of +330. Bet $10 on this play and a winning wager will provide a return of $43.00.

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