Nuggets vs. Jazz prediction, odds, line, start time: 2023 NBA picks, April 8 best bets by proven model
The Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz meet for the penultimate game of the 2022-23 regular season for both teams. Denver is 52-28 overall with the No. 1 seed wrapped up, while Utah, which has been eliminated from postseason consideration, hosts the matchup at 36-44 overall and 22-18 in Salt Lake City. Lauri Markkanen (hand), Collin Sexton (hamstring), Walker Kessler (concussion), Talen Horton-Tucker (ankle), Rudy Gay (back) and Jordan Clarkson (finger) are out for the Jazz. Nikola Jokic (calf), Michael Porter Jr. (heel), Jamal Murray (thumb), Aaron Gordon (shoulder), and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (illness) are listed as questionable for the Nuggets.
Tipoff is at 3:30 p.m. ET in Salt Lake City. Caesars Sportsbook lists Denver as the 7-point road favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 226 in the latest Nuggets vs. Jazz odds. Before locking in any Jazz vs. Nuggets picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters the final week of the 2022-23 NBA regular season a stunning 71-36 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $3,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Nuggets vs. Jazz and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the NBA lines and trends for Jazz vs. Nuggets:
- Nuggets vs. Jazz spread: Nuggets -7
- Nuggets vs. Jazz over/under: 226 points
- Nuggets vs. Jazz money line: Nuggets -285, Jazz +228
- DEN: The Nuggets are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games
- UTAH: The Jazz are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games
- Nuggets vs. Jazz picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game| Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets
Why the Nuggets can cover
Denver's offensive profile is tremendous this season. The Nuggets are elite overall, scoring 1.17 points per possession, and Michael Malone's team ranks in the top three of the league in shooting efficiency. That includes the best field goal percentage in the NBA (50.5%) and 38.1% shooting from 3-point range. Denver is in the top five of the league in assists per game (28.9), assist percentage (66.2%), and assist-to-turnover ratio (2.00), and the Nuggets are averaging 55.1 points in the paint and 16.3 fast break points per game.
The Nuggets secure 28.8% of their own missed shots on the offensive glass, and Utah is in the bottom tier of the league in defensive rating, giving up 1.16 points per possession. On the other end, the Nuggets are in the top 10 in 3-point defense, defensive rebound rate, second-chance points allowed and free throw attempts allowed to opponents.
Why the Jazz can cover
The Jazz have the benefit of home-court advantage, and Utah's home-court profile is better than what Denver has put together away from home. In addition, the Nuggets could rest a bevy of key players, including two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, and Denver's overall performance drops substantially when he is unavailable. From there, the Nuggets are strongly below the league average in free throw creation, averaging only 22.3 attempts per game, and Denver shoots only 75.2% at the free throw line.
The Nuggets also have issues with ball security, committing 14.5 turnovers per game, and Utah is in the top eight of the NBA in assists allowed (24.8 per game) and blocked shots (5.3 per game). The Jazz are also in the top ten of the league in offensive efficiency, scoring 115.4 points per 100 possessions, and Utah has top-five marks in offensive rebound rate (30.9%) and second-chance points (15.8 per game).
How to make Jazz vs. Nuggets picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 237 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 70% of simulations. You can only get the model's picks at SportsLine.
