Nuggets vs. Lakers prop bets, Game 3: Bet Jokic’s assist total in Los Angeles

The Denver Nuggets can take a 3-0 series stranglehold over the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference finals tonight.

The pregame narrative: Nikola Jokic has been doing it all this postseason and is a good bet to eclipse his assist total tonight. We’re also betting on Jamal Murray and Austin Reaves from beyond the arc in a plus money parlay.

Here are our Nuggets vs. Lakers prop bets for Game 3 on May 20.

NBA odds as of 9:26 a.m. on 05/20/2023.

Nuggets vs. Lakers prop bets

Best Bet: Jokic over 10.5 assists (-114)

This line asks Jokic to perform around one assist better than his season-long average of 9.8, and that’s fine by us. The NBA Finals MVP frontrunner has cleared this mark in six straight games and is averaging 13.0 helpers in that span.

The big Serb has looked extremely fluid against the Lakers so far. He put up 14 assists in Game 1 and followed that up with a 12-dime performance in Game 2. Both games were at Ball Arena, but it’s not like Jokic is only performing at home.

He’s gone over this mark in four of five road postseason games with the only exception being a six assist showing against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the opening round.

The big question here is how do we want to weigh L.A.’s defensive statistics. The Lakers have had home court on lockdown in the playoffs and own the best home defensive rating (98.2) while holding opponents to the lowest field-goal percentage (38.4%).

You’d think that would mean they’re not giving up many assists, but that’s actually not the case. Los Angeles is allowing 24.7 APG at home, and that ranks 11th out of 16 postseason teams. The Lakers also allow the second-most APG to opposing centres, according to FantasyPros.

We’ll gladly back Jokic to do Jokic things in a gettable matchup.

Key stat: Jokic is averaging 11.6 assists on the road this postseason.

Quick picks

Murray 3+ threes & Reaves 2+ threes (+112): Murray single-handidly willed the Nuggets to a victory in Game 2 and we’re expecting his scoring spree to continue. The Canadian went 6-for-14 from deep in that contest and has now hit at least four threes in three straight games.

He’s shooting 40.8% from beyond the arc in the playoffs despite some rocky showings against the Phoenix Suns. We expect him to perform against a Lakers team that allows the second-most 3PM to point guards in the NBA.

As for Reaves, this is a line he’s cleared in five straight. He’s also drained at least three triples in all of those games and is a combined 20-for-35 in those contests. That’s a 57.14% success rate. Tail him.

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