Lakers vs Nuggets Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Covers

24 October 2023

Lakers vs Nuggets Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Many perceive the Lakers to have closed the gap between themselves and the Nuggets over the offseason — but how much will that show on opening night? Our NBA picks break down the matchup as basketball betting returns.

After a long offseason drought, the 2023-24 NBA season is finally upon us. Kicking things off is a Western Conference grudge match between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets had the better of the Lakers in the playoffs en route to their first NBA championship, but the Lakers arguably did more to improve this offseason.

After a dispiriting sweep in the conference finals, LeBron James and company will surely seek to spoil Denver’s ring night and upset the NBA odds on Tuesday, October 24. The NBA is tragically short of true rivalries, but some genuine animosity has developed between these two teams that adds to the spice of this one.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Lakers vs. Nuggets believe Denver is still a cut above heading into this matchup.

Lakers vs Nuggets odds

Lakers vs Nuggets predictions

The popular offseason narratives for these two teams could hardly be less stark. The Los Angeles Lakers have received universal acclaim for retaining their own key free agents while making smart additions, including Gabe Vincent. The way they closed out the season — a 19-11 30-game stretch followed by dominant wins over the Memphis Grizzlies and the Golden State Warriors — has many believing the Lakers are a true contender.

The Denver Nuggets, meanwhile, have received mostly criticism. They could do little to retain Bruce Brown given the contract he was offered, but it’s a blow to their depth either way. So is seemingly the loss of Jeff Green. Title teams need depth more than ever to withstand the rigors of a long season already extended due to their previous playoff success and Denver is pushing forward without two of its key bench players.

But those narratives are perhaps skewing the reality of this matchup overly much. The Nuggets are only -4.5 favorites at home, against a team they swept in a seven-game series a few months ago. That seems off to me.

Some of what the Lakers did to reel off their late-season rally was clearly sustainable, notably the improved play and increased role of Austin Reaves. But elsewhere on the roster, there are open questions yet to be answered.

Is Rui Hachimura really as good as he played during the playoffs? Or is he closer to the player the Washington Wizards happily said goodbye to for a second-round pick?

Vincent slots nicely in with this Lakers group after a legendary playoffs push to the Finals with the Miami Heat. But Vincent’s shooting struggles during the regular season were one of the primary reasons the Heat had to win their way in through the play-in games. D’Angelo Russell is back as the nominal starter, but he was yanked from that group in the playoffs when the Nuggets torched him in the first three games of the series.

Yes, the Nuggets' depth took a blow, but their bench was already brutally bad in the regular season last year. Their starting unit remains one of the best in basketball, with built-in chemistry, trust, and symbiotic fit. Their starting group was +12.7 in 1,469 possessions per Cleaning the Glass, an elite mark at elite volume.

At the end of the day, the Nuggets swept this team in the playoffs, returned their utterly dominant starting lineup, and have the toughest homecourt advantage in basketball. Bank on the defending champs to kick off their title defense with a comfortable win on Tuesday.

DraftKings US is also offering one bonus bet for the NBA opening week, so you can back the champs tonight, without using your bankroll!

My best bet: Nuggets -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.

Lakers vs Nuggets same-game parlay

Nuggets -4.5

Nikola Jokic Over 0.5 threes made

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 threes made

For my first same-game parlay of the 2023-24 NBA season, we’re taking Jokic Over .5 3-pointers made and Kentavius Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 3-pointers made to pair with my best bet on Denver covering at -4.5.

Nikola Jokic has had a pattern in his career of not bothering with 3-point attempts much in the regular season only to turn it on in the playoffs, but his preseason shooting suggests he’s making a point to be more aggressive from the outset.

3.5 attempts per game in the preseason might not sound like much until you realize he only took 2.2 last season in about 50% more minutes. Jokic being aggressive from the perimeter is also going to make life much easier for the Nuggets' offense if Anthony Davis has to come out to the arc and contest.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has cemented himself as one of the most reliable 3-and-D wings in the entire NBA. With the amount of attention Jokic and Jamal Murray draw, it’s asking a lot of the Lakers to also be mindful of KCP slithering off picks to splash open threes. He averaged three threes a game on 44.4% from deep in the Conference Finals.

Best NBA bonuses

LeBron James/Nikola Jokic 15+ points each
Originally -600, BOOSTED to +100! Claim Now
CO Users: Jokic double-double (was -600, NOW +100) Claim Now

LeBron James/Nikola Jokic 20+ points each
Originally -160, BOOSTED to +100! Claim Now

Lakers vs Nuggets and Over/Under analysis

Tuesday’s line opened between -4.5 and -5.5 favoring the Nuggets depending on the sportsbook, and despite some movement, it is still available anywhere in that range if you go price hunting.

While I would caution about being overly reliant on last season's trends for determining your course of action heading into a new season, at least with the Lakers and Nuggets there is a high degree of continuity among the starters. So, while past performance is no guarantee of present performance, recent history can be something of a guardrail in this matchup.

Notably, Denver won both home games in the Conference Finals by five points or more and then covered against the spread on the road in the final two contests.

Another factor that remains unchanged is Denver’s best-in-class homecourt edge. To that point, the Nuggets were 31-20-1 ATS at home last season. A typical homecourt advantage edge is worth a little over two points in the NBA, so for the Nuggets to only earn -4.5 at some books makes that a value bet.

The total for the NBA season opener came in at 227.5, but that’s since risen to 228.5 at most books. Typically, to begin the year, defense is ahead of the offense, and in this instance, both these teams have done deep scouting work on each other that needs little alteration for Tuesday.

That level of familiarity certainly points to an Under. But Jokic tore through the Davis-led Lakers defense last season, and given all the talk this offseason I can see him wanting to make a point of doing so again on Tuesday. For their part, the Over has cashed in five straight Lakers games overall.