Nuggets vs. Warriors NBA expert prediction and odds for Thursday, Jan. 4 (Value on GS

For the third time this season, the Golden State Warriors will take on the Denver Nuggets in a Western Conference battle. This time though, the game will be played in Golden State.

The Warriors have kept things close in both games with Denver this season, but the team hasn’t been dominant at home like it has in the past – going just 10-8 straight up this season. 

Can Stephen Curry carry a new-look rotation to an upset win?

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Let’s break down the latest odds and my best bet for this game: 

Denver Nuggets injury report

Golden State Warriors injury report

Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic: The two-time MVP is putting up MVP-like numbers once again this season, and Jokic has dominated Golden State in the 2023-24 campaign. The Nuggets center scored 35 points in the first meeting between these teams before putting up 26, 14, and 8 on Christmas Day. He’s going to be a problem for a smaller Warriors frontcourt to deal with. 

Golden State Warriors

Stephen Curry: The Warriors will go as far as Curry takes them this season, and he’s coming off a 36-point showing in a win over the Orlando Magic. On the season, Curry is shooting 41.0 percent from deep while averaging 27.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game. 

Trayce Jackson-Davis: A second-round pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, TJD has started Golden State’s last two games, putting up 27 points and 10 rebounds in those contests. He’ll have his hands full with Nikola Jokic tonight. 

I don’t mind taking the Warriors as home dogs, especially since they covered as road underdogs against the Nuggets on Christmas Day. 

Denver is just 6-9 against the spread as a road favorite this season, and the team is 10-8 straight up on the road. 

That makes this a winnable game for Golden State, especially if Curry stays hot shooting the ball. 

Denver is a much better team in terms of net rating this season, but the Warriors have played them tough in both meetings, losing by three and six on the road. 

I’ll take the points with Golden State. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.