NY Mets vs. Phillies: Odds, probable pitchers and picks
The New York Mets will look to get their underachieving season turned around this weekend when they take on the red-hot Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.
New York (34-40, 4th in NL East), has lost 13 of its last 17 games and has not won a series since it swept the Phillies at Citi Field in late May.
Since the disappointing series in Queens, Philadelphia (38-36, 3rd in NL East), is one of the hottest teams in baseball. They've won 13 of their prior 18 contests and have not lost a series during that span.
Can the Mets get back on track before heading home for a week or will Philadelphia stay red hot heading toward the All-Star Break?
Here's my betting breakdown for the series with odds from the best sportsbooks around New Jersey.
Friday, 7:05 p.m.: Kodai Senga (6-4, 3.53) vs. Taijuan Walker (7-3, 4.31)
Consistency continues to be an issue for Senga in his first season in MLB. After earning his sixth win against the Pirates on June 10, he couldn't figure out a struggling Cardinals team. Senga took his fourth loss of the season as he surrendered multiple home runs for the first time since April 20. The 30-year-old did record eight strikeouts and only walked a batter, a complete difference from his previous two starts, where he gave out a total of nine free passes.
It should be noted that when these two teams last met, Senga shut down the Phillies lineup as he struck out nine and conceded just one hit in seven strong innings.
Since his June 1 start against his former team where he had more walks than strikeouts, Walker has been great for Philly. The right-hander has won three straight starts while allowing only one earned run and striking out 21 batters over that span.
With the Mets 7-20 in their last 27 games on the road, bet on the Phillies in the series opener as they get the best of New York on Friday night.
Place a wager on the Phillies moneyline at -116 on FanDuel Sportsbook, to cover the -1.5 run line at +160 and the under 9.5 runs scored at -110 on PointsBet Sportsbook
Prediction: Phillies 5, Mets 2
Saturday, 4:05 p.m.: Carlos Carrasco (2-3, 6.34) vs. Cristopher Sanchez (0-0, 3.24)
While Carrasco had a solid May, it's been anything but that for him in June. He holds a 7.82 ERA this month and almost has as many walks (8) as strikeouts (9) in 12 2/3 innings. Carrasco was limited to his shortest outing of the season last time out as he pitched three innings and gave up six runs (five earned) with three walks against the Cardinals.
Sanchez will be making only his third start of the season on Saturday afternoon. After being called up from Triple-A on June 17, the 26-year-old left-hander threw four scoreless innings and struck out five versus the Athletics.
This should be the highest scoring game of this matchup and give the slight edge to the Mets to get in the win column, setting up the rubber match on Sunday afternoon.
Prediction: Mets 6, Phillies 4
Sunday, 1:35 p.m.: Max Scherzer (6-2, 4.04) vs. Zach Wheeler (6-4, 3.48)
After a disappointing outing against the Yankees, Scherzer turned it around versus the Astros. He pitched a season-high eight innings and conceded one run with eight punch-outs in a dominant 11-1 victory in Houston on June 19. This comes after the 38-year-old gave up a whopping 11 runs on 18 hits in his past nine innings of work. Scherzer earned his fifth win of 2023 against the Phillies where he recorded nine strikeouts in seven innings in a 4-2 victory on June 1.
Outside of allowing seven runs and eight hits in a season-low 3 2/3 innings versus the Nationals on June 2, Wheeler's been rock solid. The former Met has won two of his last three appearances and allowed one run in his past 19 1/3 innings pitched. Over that time, Wheeler had a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 19:4 and lowered his ERA from 4.33 to 3.48.
Wheeler will all but certainly come back down to Earth a bit but it'll still be enough to get the job done as the Phillies stay hot and win the series against a struggling Mets team.
