Odds and Ends: Norway's Hovland could be primed for a Hollow Viktor-y

AFTER a low-key couple of weeks as most of the leading lights got their breath back post The Masters and a high-class RBC Heritage, the PGA Tour steps up in gear this week with the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow in North Carolina.

This competition has grown in stature over the last decade or so, and now has the added bonus of being an elevated event, ensuring an even better field than is normally the case goes to post from Thursday afternoon.

As well as being the regular home of the Wells Fargo, Quail Hollow hosted the Presidents Cup last term, with the USA running out facile winners over the Internationals, and held the USPGA Championship in 2017, when Justin Thomas hoisted the Wanamaker Trophy aloft.

‘JT’ captured that piece of silverware for the second time in Tulsa last season, and the defence of his title is looming large, with the 2023 renewal at Oak Hill Country Club in New York now just a fortnight away.

The proximity of the second Major of the season perhaps explains why Masters champion and world number one Jon Rahm uses his free pass to sit it out this week, while Scottie Scheffler also gives it a miss, with a very poor personal showing in the Presidents Cup possibly part of the thinking there.

Rory McIlroy was never likely to follow their lead, such is his stellar record at Quail Hollow, where he made his PGA Tour breakthrough in 2010, and also claimed this title in 2015 and 2021, the latter coming on the back of a missed cut at Augusta.

Therefore, the Holywood man could hardly have asked for a better place to make his comeback after another Masters disappointment prompted a late withdrawal from the elevated RBC Heritage, a decision that prompted a fair degree of criticism from his peers.

Having been one of the main architects of the new-look PGA Tour schedule, McIlroy will have to take that on the chin, and things would look a fair deal brighter should he claim this title for a fourth time come Sunday night.

And despite how badly his game fell apart at Augusta, you’d have to say there is every chance of a victory given his love affair with Quail Hollow as well as a proven ability to bounce back from adversity very quickly.

The last time he looked as crestfallen as he did at Augusta was when missing the cut in the Open at Royal Portrush in 2019, and within weeks he claimed the FedEx Cup.

There’s no way I’d rule out a McIlroy victory this week, and quotes of 15/2 are probably fair enough, especially with the red-hot Rahm sitting it out.

Certainly, the short history of the elevated events suggests it’s far better to side with a player who has history at a venue, or a love affair with it – as winner Matt Fitzpatrick did at the Heritage – than one who is turning up simply to tick a box.

I’ve just about swerved away from a bet on McIlroy, while a couple of those just behind him in the betting, notably Patrick Cantlay and Jordan Spieth, have never played Quail Hollow out of choice in the past and are overlooked despite excellent form.

With that in mind, the best bet could well be Viktor Hovland at 22/1 with Sky Bet, who are one of a few firms paying eight places.

The Norwegian made his Quail Hollow bow in 2021 when finishing third, two shots behind McIlroy, and admitted he loved the test, which is generous off the tee for the most part, but culminates with the famous three-hole ‘Green Mile’ stretch where par is your friend.

Given his comments two years ago – last year’s renewal was held in Washington DC due to the Presidents Cup and won by Max Homa – the Norwegian is definitely back through choice, while he is also returning in fine form despite a lowly 57th at the Heritage.

Hovland actually opened with a 64 there before hitting the wall, his Masters efforts taking a toll having contended all week at Augusta before tying for seventh.

That was a fine showing and built on a share of third in the Players at Sawgrass, underlining a liking for the biggest weeks on Major-type courses, which Quail Hollow certainly is.

Hovland is a tee-to-green machine who hits it plenty far enough for a long course like this one, and the big greens here negate his one glaring weakness, which is chipping.

There is every chance he could follow his European Ryder Cup team-mates Rahm and Fitzpatrick into the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour, and he is the man most likely to get the better of another one in McIlroy.

Cameron Young is likely to be in the American team for this year’s Ryder Cup in Italy, and one of the most promising players on tour would surely like to go there as a winner, having done everything but capture silverware in his season-and-a-half at the top level.

Young has been second seven times in his short career to date, most recently in the World Matchplay at the end of March, where he was the most eye-catching player all week and took out McIlroy in the semi-finals.

He built on that with a fine share of seventh at Augusta, and while Young is a Wells Fargo debutant, he did get a sighter in the Presidents Cup, when he claimed a point-and-a-half from three outings and lost his singles to an inspired Sungjae Im on the final green.

Everything suggests he is a big-time player, notably finishing second in the Open at St Andrews last summer after a third in the US PGA, while Quail Hollow should be right up his street as he hits it a mile off the tee but is also very accurate with his approach play.

Young (below) could easily shed his maiden’s tag this week and set himself up for a big summer.

Keith Mitchell is a horses for courses selection at Quail Hollow, having finished third and eighth on his last two visits, and he might go better than quotes of 50/1 suggest.

His results have tailed off a little of late after a very impressive California swing to start 2023, but a share of sixth in the Zurich Classic pairs event alongside Im 10 days ago should set the low-key American up for another big effort in a favoured event.

Mitchell is statistically the best driver on the PGA Tour this season, and he tends to play well in this part of the world, having followed McIlroy in for second at the CJ Cup in nearby Congaree last October.

He can give a good account of himself at 50s, while Emiliano Grillo may just do likewise at 125/1 with Sky Bet.

The Argentinian is a notably streaky player, who hits form for a few weeks and then falls off the radar for long spells. 

He is on one of his hot streaks at present, adding a fifth in the Mexico Open – won by Tony Finau – on Sunday to a seventh in the RBC Heritage, while Grillo also has Quail Hollow pedigree to fall back on.

He was ninth in 2018 and 14th in 2021, while the fact he led the field for approach play in Mexico suggests he can definitely outrun those triple-figure odds and give punters a run for their place money at the very least.

Whether Grillo can hold off a star-laden field for victory is open for debate, but that will certainly be on the agenda for McIlroy and Hovland as the PGA Tour heats up again.

WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP SELECTIONS
Viktor Hovland, e/w, 22/1 (Sky Bet);

Cameron Young, e/w, 20/1 (General);

Keith Mitchell, e/w, 50/1 (William Hill);

Emiliano Grillo, e/w, 125/1 (Sky Bet); top-20 finish, 4/1 (Bet365)