Odds, picks and best bets

Penn Live

24 October 2023

We get another Game 7 in these thrilling MLB Playoffs: this one between the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks. The winner will win the NL Championship Series and advance to the 2023 World Series.

For Phillies fans hoping to see their team atone for a loss in the World Series last year, this might be the final time to register with a Baseball Sportsbook and get bonus bets and a promotional offer.

MLB bettors can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets + 3 months of NBA League Pass when they create a new account with FanDuel. That promo doesn’t require a promo code.

Series odds:

Arizona (+136), Philadelphia (-162)

These odds are from Caesars Sportsbook.

Game 7 odds:

The Phillies have been favored in five of the seven games in this series. So far, the home team is 4-2 in the NLCS and 3-3 Against The Spread.

Brandon Pfaadt (2.13 ERA, 15 K in 12.2 IP) vs. Ranger Suárez (0.64 ERA, 13 K in 14 IP)

The Phillies have their hopes pinned on Suárez, the lefty who held the Diamondbacks scoreless in 5+ innings in Game 3. The Arizona lineup was stymied by the Suárez offspeed pitches, popping many of them up. But once Suárez was removed from that game, they were able to rally against the Phils’ bullpen. On Tuesday, every arm that’s not falling off will be available for Rob Thompson to back up his starter.

Last season, Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt was in Double-A ball, and this April he was in Triple-A. The right-hander didn’t make his major league debut until May. That was just about five months ago, and here the rookie is starting the biggest game the Diamondbacks have played in more than twenty years. A spot in the World Series is at stake, and Pfaadt will need to shove his nervousness deep down and channel his Randy Johnson or Curt Schilling, two ARI pitchers who delivered for the Snakes in the postseason the last time this team advanced to the Fall Classic.

If you’re a Phils’ fan, here’s what you have to be worried about: the lineup managed just six hits on Monday night in Game 6. This is a lineup that can go into a deep funk just like that. What if Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Kyle Schwarber’s bats have spent all their big hits? What is Nick Castellanos goes back to just being a heartthrob, instead of a home run slugger? What if no crooked numbers are put on the scoreboard for a second straight game?

Is it possible the underestimated D’backs can win the pennant? A few weeks ago it seemed like Arizona would miss the playoffs, and 2023 would just be another disappointing season for the team. But, here they are, an 84-win team, one win from the Fall Classic. It feels like one of those October’s where the unexpected happens. So far, the Texas Rangers have qualified for the World Series, only weeks after blowing a lead in the division and backing into the playoffs. Will the underdog D’backs make it a No. 5 seed (Texas) vs. a No. 6 seed (the Diamondbacks)? That would be a first. We don’t think it’s out of the question.

Game 7 Fact: The home team is 27-30 in MLB Playoff Game 7′s.

We were right on two of our three legs of the same-game parlay for Game 6 of the NLCS. But that wasn’t good enough for a payout. This time we go for a two-leg parlay with odds of +350.

Arizona to Win
Total Runs Under 8.5

This same-game parlay was built in DraftKings, which is offering new users a promo to bet $5 and get $200 Instantly + a no sweat SGP every day this season. This offer is for new users of DraftKings only and requires a playthrough requirement.

Best bet:

Arizona Wins (+136 from Caesars). This is a straight bet, no runs, no spread, nothing. If you bet $100 on Arizona and they win Game 7, you win $236, including your original wager.

Think you know Penn State football? Play the PennLive.com Prop Bet Showdown for a chance to win prizes!

Sidelines Group provides PennLive with original sports betting, lottery and casino content including odds, analysis, predictions and reviews to educate bettors. Please bet responsibly.

If you have a gambling problem and are located in Pennsylvania, call 1-800-GAMBLER or contact the 24-hour helpline chat at https://www.pacouncil.com/chatline.