Phillies vs Diamondbacks odds, picks, predictions: Bet on Philly to clinch World Series berth
You have to give credit where it is due with this resilient Diamondbacks team.
Arizona was outscored 15-3 by Philadelphia in the first two games of the NLCS. They’ve gone toe-to-toe since with a 14-13 run advantage, taking three of four to force Game 7 on Tuesday night.
The Diamondbacks gave everything they had on the mound in Game 6. Merrill Kelly set up the offense to grab an early 3-1 lead, striking out eight while allowing three hits and one earned run. Torey Luvullo milked his four best relievers to escape the final four innings unscathed.
It’s going to make Tuesday night all the more trickier for the D-backs on Tuesday night.
As any Game 7 goes between two debilitated clubs, winning will require what Phillies manager Rob Thomson called an “all hands on deck” approach.
It will be a rematch of the Game 3 pitching clinic showcased between Ranger Suárez (1-0, 0.64 ERA) and rookie Brandon Pfaadt (0-0, 2.13 ERA).
Suárez threw 5⅓ scoreless innings with seven strikeouts, while Pfaadt responded with a career-best performance — whiffing nine hitters through 5⅔ frames.
I wasn’t confident Pfaadt could handle this eruptive Phillies lineup, but he muzzled them to two hits in front of a home crowd despite the difference in experience. There’s not much you can say against the rookie with what he’s delivered in both of his NLDS and NLCS appearances.
Leaving the Phillies and Dodgers scoreless through 10 innings is no accident. Pfaadt did endure some hiccups against Milwaukee in the Wild Card Round with three earned runs in under three innings. It was the only road game he has pitched in this postseason.
Pfaadt was more effective in the desert during the regular season as he sported a 5.04 ERA and was 1-4 in nine road games.
He relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, which Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos and Brandon Marsh all batted above .300 against.
Suárez has also sewn together gems in October. He’s given up one run in 14 innings and is limiting hitters to a red-hot 7.1 percent barrel rate and 87.8 mph exit velocity. That all goes hand-in-hand with his 36.1 percent hard-contact rate.
He wields a more balanced pitching arsenal that features five relatively equal usages, led by his sinker.
The 2-1 Arizona win in Game 3 came down to the bullpens, and it likely will again on Tuesday. The major difference is the limited arms left for Thomson and D-backs manager Torey Lovullo to unsheathe with backs pressed to the wall.
Thomson will have ace Zack Wheeler to use out of the bullpen, with Craig Kimbrel having pitched in three of the last four games.
The Diamondbacks have had to elevate their base stealing to match Philadelphia. They were able to take four of them in Game 6, but the Phillies still lead the playoffs with 16 to the D-backs’ 12.
Ketel Marte has been driving the offense all series. Phillies pitchers cannot find an answer for this guy as he’s recorded at least one hit in all six games for a total of 11; he’s posted a monstrous 1.060 on-base plus slugging.
But there’s a big dropoff after Martel and his .423 NLCS average. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper both sit above the 1.000 OPS mark. They’ve led a lineup that’s been contributing on a broader scale, with four players averaging at least a hit per game in the series.
This Phillies’ lineup is all high-octane and it has been kept contained for only so long. Given the slight advantage in bullpen status, an edge in starting pitching in front of the raucous Citizen Bank Park crowd and bats due to make noise, the Phillies are primed to punch another ticket to the World Series.
Phillies moneyline (-165 at BetMGM)
The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.
