NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Friday

sportsbookreview.com

03 November 2023

We're examining our favorite NBA player props and the best bets for Friday, based on the best NBA odds.

The NBA In-Season Tournament begins on Friday, and the format of the tournament could impact how these games play out compared to what we are used to. All of the games count toward each team's regular-season record and their record within their groups for the tournament.

Every team will debut new designs on their courts, as well as new jerseys to help draw attention to the first-ever in-season tournament.

While the NBA aims to promote the tournament, I hope sportsbooks overlook it, and their trading teams remain focused on the NFL. The format of the NBA In-Season Tournament could offer numerous advantageous betting opportunities if so, and it all begins with a Jimmy Butler prop on Friday.

Here are our NBA player props and best bets for Friday (odds via ourbest NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Friday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via BetMGM)

Friday’s NBA best bets

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Friday’s NBA player props

Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 4.5 assists vs. Knicks (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I know what you're thinking. You're not too thrilled about an Antetokounmpo assists prop because Damian Lillard is also with the Bucks now, and he dominates the ball as the primary ball-handler. Correct, but that's also why Antetokounmpo is trading with a total of 4.5 assists with reduced juice on the Over when he usually gets a total of 6.5 assists.

Tom Thibodeau is an excellent defensive coach, and he isn't going to let Antetokounmpo get wide-open driving lanes to the rim. He'll be emphasizing to his team to build a wall wherever possible.

Last season, the Knicks put Julius Randle or Mitchell Robinson on Antetokounmpo, and the second he drove, either of the two was coming with help defense. Thibodeau's defense will allow Antetokounmpo to be a facilitator since New York is trying to stop his scoring. That's why I like Antetokounmpo's assists prop on Friday.

Antetokounmpo is projected to record 5.2 assists on Friday against the Knicks, which allows us to price the Over on 4.5 assists at -142, but you can buy it through DraftKings at -105. That means this bet is showing a positive expected value of 15%.

Place this bet at DraftKings to maximize your edge because our other best sports betting sites are trading the Over at -115, which would drop your expected value from 15% to 10%.

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Jimmy Butler Over 19.5 points vs. Wizards (-104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I don't think it's a secret that when the lights get brighter and the games are more meaningful, Butler is at his best. When the Heat take on the Wizards on Friday, not only does it count for the Heat's regular-season record, but it is also their first game of the NBA In-Season Tournament.

You could argue that Butler and the Heat might not care about the NBA In-Season Tournament, but let's not forget that the Heat share a group with the Milwaukee Bucks. With everything we know about Butler, do you really think he wouldn't be amped up to make sure the Bucks don't advance out of the group phase? Butler called out the Bucks for tampering in the Damian Lillard trades, and he has also publicly stated how much he dislikes Bucks head coach Adrian Griffin.

This Butler bet represents exactly how I think the NBA In-Season Tournament format might affect the individual player props for these games. On a normal night, you might hesitate when it comes to betting on the Over for Butler's points prop because the Heat are trading as 9.5-point favorites. If it's a blowout in the second half, Butler might not see his usual amount of minutes.

In the NBA In-Season Tournament, point differential is the second tiebreaker for deciding who will advance. The Heat have two days off following this game against the Wizards, and the tournament format gives them a reason to stay on the gas against the Wizards. Because of this format, I believe that regardless of the score, you will see Butler play for 33-plus minutes, which is just an added boost to this wager.

Butler is projected to score 21.8 points against the Wizards on Friday, allowing us to price this prop at -148, and we have a rogue price alert via FanDuel. This -104 price point is not available everywhere; it is only being offered at this number via FanDuel. Most of our other best sports betting apps have this prop trading at -120.

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NBA best bets made 11/03/2023 at 6:30 a.m. ET