Oregon State vs. Oregon Prediction, Preview, and Odds

It’s Rivalry Week as the college football regular season wraps up, and we have a monumental clash this weekend as the 16th-ranked Oregon State Beavers take on the sixth-ranked Oregon Ducks in the Civil War. Oregon State enters this game at 8-3 (5-3 CONF) while Oregon is currently 10-1 (7-1 CONF). Kickoff is scheduled for Friday at 8:30 ET from Autzen Stadium in Eugene, OR.

Beavers Edged Out by Huskies

Head coach Jonathan Smith is putting together another fantastic season in his sixth year in charge of the Oregon State football program. Smith’s Beavers have lost three games this year, but the combined margin of defeat is just eight points. The three defeats came at the hands of Washington State (38-35), Arizona (27-24), and Washington (22-20), most recently. Oregon State fans will chalk this up as an excellent season if they can ruin Oregon’s CFP chances this weekend. From a sports betting perspective, the Beavers enter this game at 6-5 ATS and they’ve seen six of their 11 games go over the total.

Newcomer D.J. Uiagalelei has been the man under center this season, and he’s putting together a solid campaign. The veteran signal caller has racked up 2,418 passing yards on a 57.5% completion rate while adding 20 touchdowns and six interceptions. Damien Martinez has spearheaded the rushing attack, adding 1,147 yards on 181 carries (6.3 YPC). 

The defense has been one of the better units in the country under second-year coordinator Trent Bay. His defense is allowing just 22.0 points per game (against FBS schools), which is 36th overall. They’re also 36th in yards against, surrendering just 342.6 yards per contest.

Ducks Destroy Sun Devils, Win Fifth Straight

Oregon is putting together a monster season under second-year head coach Dan Lanning. His Ducks have been destroying teams, putting up the country’s largest margin of victory of 29.8 points per game. Following the lone loss to Washington (36-33) last month, Oregon has rattled off five straight wins against Washington State (38-24), Utah (35-6), California (63-19), USC (36-27), and Arizona State (49-13), most recently. As for the sports betting numbers, the Ducks are 8-2-1 ATS and they’ve seen six of their 11 games go under the total. 

Bo Nix is the lead quarterback in Eugene this season, and he’s compiling quite the Heisman resume. He’s currently second (Jayden Daniels -130) on the Heisman betting board at +130. Statistically, Nix has amassed 3,539 passing yards on an insane 78.1% completion rate while slinging 35 touchdowns to just two interceptions. Bucky Irving leads the run game, and he has added 1,002 yards on 149 totes (6.7 YPC). 

This Oregon defense is also one of the best in the country under co-defensive coordinators Tosh Lupoi and Chris Hampton. Their unit is allowing just 17.7 points per game (against FBS opponents), which is 11th in the country. In terms of yardage, that translates to giving up just 321.0 yards per contest, which is 18th overall.

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This is the marquee matchup of the night on Friday as Oregon hosts Oregon State in the Civil War rivalry game. Interestingly, the oddsmakers see the Beavers as a 13.5-point underdog. I’m going to take the points with Oregon State here. My advice would be to wait around until the last minute to see if this line moves north to 14.0 points. But, when kickoff rolls around on Friday night, I’ll have an Oregon State ticket in my hand with however many points are available. 

The Beavers have gone through the gauntlet this year, and their three losses have been by just a combined eight points. I think they have the physicality to hang around in this game and turn it into a rock fight. They’re one of the best rushing teams in the country, racking up 192.5 rushing yards per game (23rd). So, if they’re able to minimize the possessions in the game and lean on the rushing attack, they should be able to keep this one close. They also have a veteran quarterback in DJ Uiagalelei, who has developed into a trustworthy option under center. I just think 13.5 points is too many for a rivalry game of this magnitude – give me the Beavers.

Prediction: Oregon State Beavers +13.5 (-108)

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Of course there’s always a chance the game goes over, but this number is way too high in my opinion. As I was alluding to above, Oregon State does not want this game to turn into an absolute barnburner. They’ve been successful at playing in lower-scoring games against big opponents (i.e. Utah 21-7, Washington 22-20). They’ve proven they’re capable of running a slower offense, which can be exemplified by the fact that they’re running just 67.3 plays per game (83rd). Meanwhile, Oregon is just 65th in plays per game, using 69.1 plays. 

Factor in that these are two of the better defenses in the country, and I think points will be at a premium. Also, Oregon doesn’t need to go out and drop 40+ points. Sure, trying to amass stats for Bo Nix’s Heisman campaign would be a nice side quest, but the main goal is to escape with a win and move onto championship weekend. I anticipate both teams taking a somewhat conservative approach to this game, and I believe we may actually see less than 50 combined points in this year’s Civil War.