Baltimore Orioles at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

The Baltimore Orioles (73-45) continue their 9-game road trip with the opening game of a 3-game series on Monday against the San Diego Padres (56-62). First pitch from Petco Park is at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting since Padres took 3 of 4 games in 2019

The Orioles lead the AL East by 3 games and have the best record in the American League. They won the last 2 games in their series against the Seattle Mariners and 10-4 in their last 14 games.

The Padres have lost 2 in a row and are coming off a 1-4 road trip. They have lost 6 of their last 7 games.

Orioles at Padres projected starters

RHP Grayson Rodriguez vs. RHP Yu Darvish

Rodriguez (2-3, 5.84 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 74 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 7-6 home loss to Houston Astros on Tuesday
• Orioles 2-4 in his last 6 outings

Darvish (8-7, 4.19 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 120 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 6-1 road loss to Seattle Mariners on Wednesday
• Has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 4 of last 5 starts

Orioles at Padres odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:47 a.m. ET.

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Orioles at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 5, Padres 4

The pitching matchup is to the Padres’ advantage, but the Orioles have a 37-22 road record this season and have won 5 of their last 7 road games and 10 of their last 14 games overall. The Padres are only 30-28 at home and have lost 6 of their last 7 games.

It is odd that Baltimore is an underdog, but take advantage of the plus odds.

BET ORIOLES (+120).

The Orioles are 73-45 ATS this season, the 2nd-best mark in MLB. They are 42-16 ATS as the underdog while the Padres are 42-48 ATS as the favorite.

In 6 of the last 7 games the Orioles have covered the spread as the underdog, they have won outright.

PASS.

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Eight of the Padres’ last 11 games have had 9 or more total runs whil 6 of the Orioles’ last 9 have had 9 or more runs.

Six of the last 8 starts for Rodriguez have had 9 or more total runs and 4 of Darvish’s last 7 starts have had 9 or more runs.

BET OVER 8.5 (+100).

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