Orioles: Last 7, Next 7

Any Other Predictions You Want To Change?

Kyle Stowers has 4 ab’s through 7 games. Obviously not going to get 450 ab’s at that pace.I’m not ready to change that prediction though.While I think the O’s intend to rotate a number of guys at DH; I think Stowers sooner than later replaces Anthony Santander as the primary RF. I’ve been wrong so far on how the O’s will utilize Stowers.

Maybe I’ll come off the 450 ab prediction next week if he’s still being used as a once a week player.

While I would not have wanted to give Adam Frazier $8M, and I would have been good with going with Jordan Westburg as the starting 2nd baseman to begin ’23, I acknowledged the O’s could get something from their FA acquisition.
A week into Frazier’s Oriole tenure, and it’s becoming easier for me to envision Frazier holding Westburg off later into this ’23 season than I would have anticipated.

No, Frazier isn’t going to slash .350 / .435 / .650 for any prolonged stretch as he has put-up over his first 20 ab’s; but you can see the appeal that Mike Elias & Co had in him. The longer that Frazier looks adequate and isn’t a black-hole; the easier it will be to continue to write his name in the lineup. Especially with the money owed to him. For Westburg to replace Frazier before the All-Star break, Frazier is going to have to slump, and Westburg is going to have to light up AAA.

Felt Bad For Kyle Bradish

Knocked out due to injury in under 2 innings, and sent to the Injured List isn’t an ideal start to a season.
The good news is that he was able to run down the Orange Carpet yesterday, and said if he had been placed on the 10 Day IL vs. the 15; he would have been ready to go.

Felt Great For Grayson Rodriguez

A sad reality of injuries, is that they create opportunities for others. Rodriguez – sent down to AAA to begin the year – had his scheduled start line-up with the opening, and got the promotion. With Jacob deGrom going for the Rangers, Rodriguez was able to make his ML debut in his home state of Texas. Rodriguez was limited to 75.2 innings in the Minors last year. I think he’s good for +/- 150 total this year. Outside of the 4 inning AAA outing he had to begin this season; I’d like to see all of his remaining innings in the Majors.

He impressed in Texas, and any subsequent start he makes this year will be a much watch.

A Healthy Austin Hays

A healthy Austin Hays is a talented player. I’ve always liked Austin’s skill-set. 2022 was tough. He was excellent through June, and pretty horrible July 1st on.One of the larger talking points for Hays going into ’22 was that he needed to show he could stay in the lineup.What’s come out here in the first week of ’23 is that he played with a lingering wrist injury through out the 2nd half last year.You get that he wanted to show he could stay in the lineup, but it torpedoed his season offensively. That said, that’s at-least partly on him. If the wrist was impacting his offense significantly, it wasn’t helping him or the O’s for him to stay in the lineup. Understandable, but not helpful.At this point, he needs to show that not only can he stay in the lineup through another season, but that he can produce throughout a year consistently. One other thing here. While the wrist injury could have impacted his throwing, it doesn’t explain why his range defensive metrics also fell off in the 2nd half last year.So far this year we’ve seen him miss one ball in Boston. Was a lined shot that carried at him (always the toughest play to make); but it felt like a play that should have been made. We also saw him make two excellent plays in Fenway, and show off the arm too. There is depth and options on the ML roster, and in the higher Minors.

The pressure is on Austin to produce each day.

I’m Enjoying The Rule Changes

I’m in love with the pitch clock. Think it’s great.The clock, with the larger bases is encouraging more running; and that’s fun too.

Dean Kremer Should Be 2-0

Kremer had a 7-1 lead in Boston, and a 4-0 lead yesterday. Both leads were coughed up.Kremer was legitimately very good last year. Nothing about his ’22 performance was smoke and mirrors.He’s allowed 9 er in his 8.1 innings so far this season.There is some early pressure for him in his next outing. For a guy that everyone considers a backend starter, I like his stuff. I agree with what Orioles Manger Brandon Hyde said about Kremer going into his start yesterday.

He’s better when he’s not nibbling, and he’s going at hitters with an attacking mentality.

Gunnar Henderson Is Impressive

There’s a headline. Baseball’s number 1 overall prospect is impressive! What a surprise! I’m just saying Oriole fans should really enjoy what we’re watching here.The 21 year old has 6 walks. He’s patient, and has really strong professional ab’s. His opposite field homer was smoked. Easy power. He has to be, and will be in the lineup everyday.It’s caught the attention of some Oriole fans that he’s already had 2 games at DH. I think he’s a capable fielder. He has good footwork, and a very strong arm.With additional experience, I think he can be excellent at 3rd, and at-least average at SS.Right now with this roster though, some time at DH is understandable.Jorge Mateo is a superior defensive SS.Ramon Urias is a high quality defensive 3rd baseman (and the defending Gold Glove winner).If Frazier’s play tanks at some point, maybe Urias gets more time at 2nd, with Henderson locking down 3rd.

Right now, as long as Henderson is in the lineup somewhere, I’m happy.

Ryan McKenna’s Drop

No excuse for a Major League player to drop a ball like that, but the reality is that errors (mental and physical) happen to pros as well.
I think Ryan is a quality 4th OF. He is a strong defensive player despite that drop, he runs well, and he has shown to be a quality offensive player at the AAA level at-least. It’s not easy coming off the bench once a week, and trying to hit. I think he’s an asset to the roster.

Also, the Orioles lost a game there that they had no business losing.
Somewhere along the way they’ll win a game they have no business winning.

Mychal Givens, Dillon Tate, and Jorge Lopez

When Givens and Tate come back; I’ll feel good about them in-conjunction with Cionel Perez for the 6th and 7th innings.I do think the team could use one more arm that can bridge to Felix Bautista. I didn’t love trading Lopez in-season last year with a Wild Card within reach (mainly because of esthetics); but I think the return the O’s got was strong.The O’s got back some quality arms, with years of team control. Mike Elias made a judgement call that A) That even if the O’s reached the playoffs, they weren’t good enough, and B) That Lopez wasn’t going to be the difference of reaching the post-season or not. With apologies for rehashing that trade again; I do feel this O’s team could use a ‘Lopez’ type.

If the Orioles feel the same, they have plenty of internal depth to go identify an arm, and find a deal somewhere.

Big Performance From Tyler Wells

After the McKenna drop in Boston, followed by a 9-5 beating the next day; the O’s arrived in Texas at 1-2.
They then lost Bradish to injury before the end of the 2nd inning. Wells came in out of the bullpen and gave the Birds 5 scoreless, hitless innings of work. That was huge. Wells might always bounce between 5th starter / bullpen swing guy, but there is value there. He’s definitely a guy that can help a team.

The OF Defense

As we talked about above, in Boston Hays made two great plays, but also misplayed a ball. McKenna had a quality grab, but also his memorable gaffe.Cedric Mullins looked very uncomfortable with the wall. Anthony Santander had some issues as well.All-in-all, it was a bad 3 games for the OF defense. You could attribute it to any of number of things, but for me it’s mainly an aberration, or at-least not something I’m concerned with.Mullins is quality CF, he covers a lot of ground, and his limited arm hasn’t shown to be a huge liability.Despite Hays’ overall poor defensive metrics last year, I think he’s plenty capable. McKenna can play all 3 positions.

Santander is not a butcher, but the O’s finding more time for Stowers would be a defensive upgrade there.

Mateo & Urias

I spent the off-season advocating for signing one of the Free Agent SS’s.I did that because I thought their (the FA SS’s) games (particularly their offense) was more predictable / dependable going forward that Mateo’s total game. There are worse things than having Mateo as the everyday SS though.He was a 2.8 fWAR player last year. He played SS at a very high level. Obviously his speed is exceptional.The only thing you could really dislike about his ’22 season, was that abysmal .267 on-base %.

If he can be a .700 OPS guy, that’s a good everyday player.

I’m a Urias fan as well. Especially at 3rd.
He’s just very solid.

The Next 7 Games

The next 7 games including tonight are:

4/8 NYY 4/9 NYY4/10 Oakland4/11 Oakland4/12 Oakland4/13 Oakland

4/14 @ Chicago White Sox

You’d love to beat NY tonight, and get the series win, with an opportunity to sweep tomorrow.Tonight is Irvin’s second start, and you would like to see a bit more from him than his first time out.Oakland is 2-5 entering today. They’re expected to be a bad team. Get greedy and get 3 of 4 there.

We talked about anticipating Kremer’s next start. That comes Wednesday.