Orioles-Rays prediction: Picks, odds on Thursday, July 20

The Baltimore Orioles (58-37) and the Tampa Bay Rays (60-39) will begin a four-game divisional series on Thursday, July 20. First pitch from Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Baltimore will start Kyle Gibson (9-6, 4.77 ERA), while Tampa Bay sends ace Tyler Glasnow to the mound (3-3, 3.78 ERA).

The Rays are the -190 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Orioles are the +160 underdogs, and the run total is set at eight.

Orioles-Rays picks: Thursday, July 20

Injury report

Orioles

Out: OF Cedric Mullins (groin)

Rays

N/A

Starting pitchers

Kyle Gibson vs. Tyler Glasnow

Gibson will start his 21st game of the season on Thursday. He benefitted from run support his last time out as he got rocked by the Miami Marlins. Gibson pitched 5.1 innings and allowed five earned runs on nine hits, striking out one and walking two while not factoring into the decision.

Glasnow will make his 10th appearance of the season. He has been solid in his last two outings, allowing just a solo home run as the only blemishes against him. Glasnow last pitched six innings against the Kansas City Royals. He allowed one earned run on six hits while striking out seven and walking two. Glasnow picked up his third win of the season as the Rays outscored the Royals 6-1.

Over/Under pick

Baltimore is hitting the over in 56.3% of their games, the second-highest mark in the league. Tampa Bay comes in at seventh, with 54.7% of their games hitting the over. These teams matched up five times in the first half of the season and saw run totals of three, six, three, 14 and nine. I’m taking the over for Thursday.

Pick: Over 8

Moneyline pick

Tampa Bay has the league’s best winning percentage this season when playing at home. Baltimore has the second-best win percentage on the road, making this an intriguing series. The Rays head into the series opener after dropping four in a row, while the Orioles are 4-2 since the All-Star break. Still, Glasnow gives Tampa Bay a great chance to come away with a victory, and I think they pick up a much-needed win.