Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions

The Baltimore Orioles (60-38) conclude a 4-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays (61-41) Sunday at Tropicana Field. First pitch is set for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Orioles lead 5-3

In Saturday’s 6-5 victory over the Rays, the Orioles produced 5 ER on Rays’ ace LHP Shane McClanahan. Baltimore has won 7 of its last 10 games and is now 1 game ahead of Tampa Bay atop the AL East.

Despite losing on Saturday, SS Wander Franco had 3 RBIs and OF Randy Arozarena stole his 11th base of the season. Tampa Bay is 4-6 in its last 10 games.

Orioles at Rays projected starters

RHP Tyler Wells vs. RHP Taj Bradley

Wells (7-5, 3.54 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 106 2/3 innings.

• Has given up 2 ER or more in 8 consecutive starts
• June 21 at Rays: Lost, 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K in 7-2 setback

Bradley (5-6, 5.29 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 12.1 K/9 in 66 1/3 innings.

• Has allowed 4 ER or more in 3 of his last 4 starts
• June 21 vs. Orioles: Win, 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K in 7-2 victory

Orioles at Rays odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:31 a.m. ET.

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Orioles at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 5, Rays 4

Given Bradley’s recent struggles, and how these teams have performed recently, I’ll back the ORIOLES (+115) on the road. Tampa Bay has cooled off at home in recent series, while Baltimore has won 7 of its last 10 road games.

Even though I have the Orioles winning outright on Sunday against their AL East foes, I’ll PASS on their run line at the current odds (-175).

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LEAN OVER 8.5 (-110).

Wells has surrendered multiple ER in 8 straight starts and Bradley has struggled to limit runs in recent starts. The Orioles are 7-3 to the Over in their last 10 games overall. And the Rays have achieved the Over in 32 of their last 53 games at home.

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