Rays-Orioles prediction: Picks, odds on Saturday, September 16

Two straight wins at Camden Yards have the Tampa Bay Rays (92-57) just percentage points behind the Baltimore Orioles (91-56) for the AL East lead. The O’s will look to snap their four-game skid and stay on top in game three of this four-game set on Saturday night, with first pitch set for 7:05 p.m. ET. It’s a star-studded matchup on the mound, as Tampa gives the ball to Tyler Glasnow (9-5, 3.15 ERA) while Baltimore counters with rookie sensation Grayson Rodriguez (5-4, 4.88).

The Rays enter as -125 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Orioles at +105. The run total is set at 7.5.

Rays-Orioles picks: Saturday, September 16

Injury report

Rays

Out: OF Jose Siri (fractured right hand), RP Jason Adam (left oblique strain)

Orioles

Day-to-day: 1B Ryan Mountcastle (left shoulder soreness)
Out: RP Felix Bautista (right UCL injury)

Starting pitchers

Tyler Glasnow vs. Grayson Rodriguez

Granted, he’s set the bar very, very high for himself, but Glasnow hasn’t been quite up to that standard since the calendar flipped to September. The righty has posted a 3.79 over three starts this month, most recently giving up four runs on six hits (including two homers) and two walks while striking out eight in six innings against the Twins. Punchouts haven’t been the problem — Glasnow has fanned at least seven batters in 12 of his last 14 outings — and his stuff remains as electric as ever, making him an excellent bounce-back candidate tonight. Glasnow has faced Baltimore twice already this year, to disparate results: He got rocked for six runs in 4.1 innings in late June, then came back and dominated the O’s while striking out nine in seven frames of two-run ball a month later.

The top pitching prospect in the sport entering the year, Rodriguez got off to a nightmare start to his MLB career, posting a 7.35 ERA over his first 10 starts and earning a demotion back to Triple-A. He came back up to Baltimore in July, though, and has shoved ever since: The righty has a 2.55 ERA over his last nine outings, allowing more than two earned runs just twice over that span. He is coming off arguably his worst start of that excellent stretch, though, giving up four runs (two earned) on seven hits and two walks over 4.1 innings against the Red Sox last weekend. Fenway Park turns balls in play into trouble as well as any ballpark this side of Coors Field, though, and overall Rodriguez looks the part of a future ace.

Over/Under pick

Baltimore’s offense has gone silent at the worst possible time, with a combined six runs scored over this four-game losing streak. Glasnow is among the toughest starters in baseball, and I expect his outing tonight to look a lot more like his second start against the O’s with his first. After these teams totaled seven runs in the opener on Thursday, I’m backing the under again tonight with two electric righties on the mound.

Pick: Under 7.5

Moneyline pick

In a tight pitcher’s duel, bullpens can make all the difference — and it’s hard not to trust Tampa’s unit in that spot based on their recent performance (and the fact that the O’s are really missing Felix Bautista right now). Robert Stephenson, Pete Fairbanks and Co. should throw up enough zeroes to allow the Rays to be the team that comes up with the big hit late and make it three wins in a row at Camden Yards.