Orioles roundtable: Predicting ALDS rotation, X-factors, series winner and more

The Orioles will host Game 1 of the American League Division Series on Saturday for Camden Yards’ first postseason game since 2014. Baltimore welcomes the Texas Rangers to town after they swept the Tampa Bay Rays in a best-of-three wild-card series earlier this week.

In the regular season, the Orioles went 101-61 to win the AL East and earn the circuit’s top seed, while the Rangers clinched a wild-card spot on the penultimate day of the regular season, ending the year with a 90-72 record. While the Orioles rested and held workouts at Camden Yards, the Rangers upset Tampa Bay, outscoring the Rays 11-1 in the series.

Ahead of the Orioles’ first playoff game since 2016, Baltimore Sun reporters Nathan Ruiz, Jacob Calvin Meyer and Hayes Gardner answer five questions facing the team.

Nathan Ruiz: Kyle Bradish should get the ball in Game 1, which would also line him up for the decisive Game 5, should it be needed. Only twice in Bradish’s final 17 starts did he fail to complete six innings, and both of those outings were scoreless. The latter was a two-inning tuneup in the final game of the regular season, enough work to leave him with the lowest second-half ERA of any qualified AL starter. Grayson Rodriguez ranked third in that regard, while John Means’ effectiveness in his return from Tommy John elbow reconstruction should make him a lock, too. The ordering here could be up for debate, with the possibility the Orioles turn to Means, a left-hander, in Game 2 to try to neutralize Texas’ right-handed bats with Camden Yards’ left field wall. Game 4, if necessary, will go to either Dean Kremer or Kyle Gibson. Kremer has more upside, but that could also make him more effective if he’s needed in relief in one of the first three games.

Jacob Calvin Meyer: What Means did in September (2.66 ERA across four starts) is nothing short of miraculous, but that doesn’t mean it was flawless. He struck out just 11.4% of batters — nearly half the league-average rate — and generated a whiff on only 16.4% of swings for a rate about eight percentage points worse than average. His sample is small, and because of that, the underlying metrics carry more weight. He’s also relied heavily on his fastball and elite changeup, a two-pitch arsenal from a left-hander that would help the Orioles win multiple playoff games out of the bullpen instead of just one as a starter. Means also wasn’t the only Orioles starter to pitch well in September. All five posted ERAs below 3.60, as Gibson delivered his best month of the season with a 2.45 ERA and Kremer came through with two stellar starts in the playoff- and AL East-clinching victories. Gibson posted a quality start in 17 of his 33 outings, while the Orioles are 24-8 in games started by Kremer, who has a 3.09 ERA since July. I know, I know, get to the point already. Bradish Game 1 (and 5, if necessary), Rodriguez Game 2, Gibson Game 3, Kremer Game 4.

Hayes Gardner: Bradish in Game 1, Rodriguez in Game 2 and Means in Game 3. Then, in a Game 4, I’d be more inclined to pitch Gibson over Kremer, although I understand arguments in favor of Kremer, who posted a lower ERA than Gibson this season. Gibson did have some rough August outings, but I’ll lean on the veteran, knowing I can confidently turn to Kremer out of the bullpen if needed. The ball would go back to Bradish in a Game 5, and Orioles fans have to feel good whenever he’s on the mound: his ERA is 2.40 over his past 22 starts.

Ruiz: Shintaro Fujinami was technically the lone reliever the Orioles added before the trade deadline, though Jack Flaherty is now in that role after struggling as a starter and Jacob Webb joined the bullpen soon after as a waiver claim. Regardless, in Fujinami, the Orioles fortified their relief unit with a mercurial right-hander, one who possessed dynamic stuff but struggled to consistently harness it. There are aspects of his performance to like, including a .193 batting average allowed and 25.4% strikeout rate with Baltimore, but most of his success has come in lower-leverage outings, and Hyde has brought him in with the bases empty in 24 of his 30 appearances. With the days off sprinkled into the series, the Orioles could operate with eight relievers and carry an extra position player.

Meyer: Cole Irvin’s 77 1/3 innings will be the most by any pitcher to be left off Baltimore’s roster, but that answer doesn’t seem to capture the vibe of the question. So I’ll go with Heston Kjerstad. Rostering 12 pitchers to have an extra bench bat, like the Orioles had in September, makes sense. But the Rangers will likely have left-handers start three of the five games and a bullpen with four southpaws, diminishing the value of having Kjerstad, a left-handed hitter, on the bench to pinch-hit against right-handers. The off days do provide extra rest, but playoff contests don’t have the automatic runner placed on second base in extra innings, opening the possibility for marathon games. An extra arm in the ’pen — especially a high-upside one like Fujinami and a long-relief one like Flaherty — could prove valuable in this series.

Gardner: I’m guessing the Orioles will carry 14 position players and 12 pitchers, which will mean a tough bullpen decision. Could Flaherty be the odd man out? Of the midseason adds, Fujinami has been better. Flaherty doesn’t have much relief experience, but that isn’t as concerning as his poor performance in Baltimore. It feels crazy to leave one of the team’s most high-profile trade acquisitions in recent years off the roster, but it’s the right move. Maybe in a potential seven-game series, the Orioles will add him and drop a hitter.

Ruiz: Tyler Wells. Since Félix Bautista’s season-ending elbow injury, the Orioles have mixed and matched late in games, but in the postseason, manager Brandon Hyde will need someone he can depend on late in games. The ever-competitive Wells seems primed to latch onto the opportunity, and his capability of getting out both righties and lefties could make him a much-needed relief ace.

Meyer: The Rangers’ potential Games 2, 4 and 5 starters are left-handed. Four of their relievers are southpaws. It would be great if the Orioles had one of the best hitters against lefties in the major leagues. Oh, wait, they do. Ryan Mountcastle has the power to single-handedly win a playoff game for Baltimore, and he’ll have the opportunities to do so in the ALDS. The slugger is slashing .338/.398/.655 against left-handers this season — good for a whopping 1.052 OPS that leads all AL hitters with at least 150 plate appearances off southpaws. Mountcastle was also the club’s best hitter in the second half of the season with a .322/.404/.489 slash line after coming back from his bout with vertigo.

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Gardner: An X-factor can mean so many things. It could mean Jorge Mateo stealing a pivotal base as a pinch runner or Danny Coulombe striking out a lefty at a key moment. My pick, though, is Austin Hays. The 2023 All-Star has struggled in the second half of the season, as he did last year, hitting just .228 after this season’s break compared with .314 before. But if he can — after the team received some deserved days off this week — put together a strong ALDS, it would be a huge lift.

Ruiz: Corey Seager against the Orioles’ left-handed relievers. In a season that could result in him being the runner-up for AL Most Valuable Player, Seager has performed well in left-on-left matchups (.882 OPS), but it still lags behind his output with the platoon advantage (1.075 OPS). It stands to reason Hyde will turn to Coulombe, Cionel Pérez and DL Hall to face him often in the series, and those matchups, should they come in big spots, could dictate the series.

Meyer: Brandon Hyde versus Bruce Bochy. Hyde has often praised the Orioles’ depth, listing it as a reason for the club’s turnaround. He frequently pressed the right buttons during the regular season — evidenced by the Orioles’ 101 wins — by mix-and-matching his bullpen arms and deploying his bench bats. He’ll need to continue doing so for Baltimore to advance, and Bochy won’t make it easy on him. The Rangers manager has 26 years, 2,093 wins and three World Series rings under his belt.

Gardner: Orioles starting pitching versus Rangers starting pitching. I’m almost tempted to say “the young Orioles versus the postseason,” but I think Baltimore, even with its lack of playoff experience, will rise to the occasion. Starting pitching, though, will be the difference. The Rangers have nearly $90 million in starting pitcher salary on the injured list in Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Jon Gray, yet they still have Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery, who combined to allowed just one run in 13 2/3 innings against the Rays. The Orioles, on the other hand, will rely on a newly minted ace (Bradish), a rookie (Rodriguez) and a pitcher with four games under his belt since Tommy John surgery (Means). Those labels belie their ability, though, as each had a great September. If they can continue a string of dominant starts, I like Baltimore’s chances to advance.

Ruiz: The Orioles, in five games. Bradish has pitched like an ace most of the year, so here’s a guess he does so twice while Baltimore picks up one of the games between.

Meyer: The Rangers, in five games. This series could be the best of the divisional round, as Baltimore and Texas appear to be evenly matched teams. The Rangers have the two best players in Seager (1.013 OPS) and Marcus Semien (7.4 wins above replacement), two of the three best starting pitchers in Montgomery (3.20 ERA) and Eovaldi (2.90 ERA in 49 2/3 playoff innings) and the best home run hitter with Adolis García (39 homers) in the series. It says nothing about the Orioles’ magical 2023 season if they fall short against a fellow great team in the ALDS.

Gardner: The only outcome that would shock me is the Rangers winning in three, given the Orioles have not been swept in 17 months. Camden Yards will be a scene Saturday hosting a playoff game for the first time in nine years, and with Bradish on the mound, I like the Orioles’ odds in Game 1. From there, I see them taking two of the next three. Orioles, in four.