Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers

Orioles vs. Rangers Odds

The Texas Rangers sputtered to an 18-24 record to end the regular season, but they have reversed the script in October, winning each of their first four playoff games. On Tuesday evening, Texas has an opportunity to punch their ticket to the American League Championship Series with a win at home over the Baltimore Orioles. First pitch for Game 3 between these two clubs is scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET on Tuesday from Globe Life Field.

Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Orioles as -140 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 7.5 runs.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

Baltimore Orioles

Dean Kremer gets the ball for Baltimore in Game 3

Dean Kremer posted a 13-5 record in 32 starts this year, making him the latest poster child for the “wins don’t matter” crowd. Kremer’s record is severely misaligned with his 4.12 ERA, 4.96 xERA, 4.51 FIP, and 1.31 WHIP. Kremer finished the regular season ranked in the 34th percentile in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, chase rate, whiff percentage, strikeout rate, and barrel rate in 2023.

He was at his worst against left-handed hitters, posting a 5.40 FIP, 1.54 WHIP, and allowing a .270 opponent batting average. Texas could have as many as six left-handed bats in the lineup on Tuesday night, making it difficult to imagine that Kremer lasts long in this contest.

Birdland bats hoping to extend season

On Sunday afternoon, Baltimore’s offense scored eight runs on 14 hits, but it still was not enough to even up this series. The lineup had contributions from nearly everyone in Game 2, including a 4-hit day from Jorge Mateo out of the 9-hole, which made it particularly frustrating to be unable to come away with a victory. Down the stretch in the regular season, the Orioles offense struggled, ranking 20th in OPS and 23rd in ISO against right-handed pitching. They face a difficult test on Tuesday with their season on the line.

Baltimore bullpen unable to do their job

Despite missing their closer Felix Bautista for the final portion of the regular season, the Baltimore arm barn ranked 4th in FIP, 8th in WHIP, 25th in strikeout rate, and 4th in walk percentage from August 26 to October 1. During that stretch, DL Hall, Shintaro Fujinami, Cionel Perez, Danny Coulombe, Jacob Webb, and Yennier Cano each tossed at least 10 innings of relief for Baltimore while posting a 3.78 FIP or better.

Yet this unit could not do their job in Game 2, allowing six earned runs in relief of Grayson Rodriguez. Jack Flaherty is unlikely to be available in Game 3 after throwing 46 pitches on Sunday. Everyone else should be ready to go, but slowing down this hot Texas offense has proven difficult so far in this series.

Texas Rangers

Eovaldi looks to add to impressive postseason resume

In 49.2 innings of postseason work, Nathan Eovaldi owns a 2.90 ERA, 2.47 FIP, and 0.97 WHIP. Despite struggling mightily in the final month of the regular season, Eovaldi was able to deliver 6.2 innings of one-run baseball in the Wild Card round against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Still, there were red flags in that outing. Namely, Eovaldi allowed an abundance of hard contact and had only three whiffs on 20 fastballs. All 33 of Eovaldi’s splitters, curveballs, and cutters that were in the zone resulted in contact. Facing a capable Baltimore offense in Game 3, Eovaldi is unlikely to repeat his success from last week.

Rangers’ relentless offense fueling postseason run

Including the final weekend of the regular season, the Texas offense entered Game 2 of the Wild Card round in a 3-for-23 (.130 batting average) slump with runners-in-scoring-position. The Rangers busted out of that drought in Game 1 of the Division Series, going 4-for-13 (.308 batting average) and scoring seven runs in a winning effort. The next day, Texas was even better – scoring 11 runs and going 5-for-17 (.294 batting average) with runners-in-scoring-position. This lineup is performing at an elite level to begin October and is showing no sign of slowing down any time soon.

Texas bullpen concerns becoming an afterthought

By far, the biggest vulnerability for Texas this postseason is their bullpen. However, they have yet to expose that flaw through their first four postseason games due to a combination of strong offense and starting pitching. In Game 2, this unit allowed three earned runs in only five innings of work, but the offense scored 11 runs. In their first three October games, strong starting pitching shortened the bridge from the starters to Aroldis Chapman and Jose Leclerc in the latter frames. Other than Chapman and Leclerc, no other permanent member of the bullpen had a FIP below 4.05 from July 1 to the end of the regular season. Manager Bruce Bochy hopes he can avoid digging into his middle relievers again on Tuesday.

Orioles vs. Rangers – Picks & Predictions

The Orioles are not a fraudulent team simply because they have struggled in a few postseason games. Yet it is difficult to find many reasons to back them in Game 3 against a Texas offense that is extremely well-equipped to do damage against Dean Kremer. The Rangers have the better offense and the better starting pitcher in Game 3. Avoid any potential bullpen issues by taking the first five innings moneyline, as the Rangers go for their second consecutive series sweep.

PICK: Rangers First Five Innings Moneyline (-145, Fanatics Sportsbook)