Orioles vs Blue Jays Prediction, Picks, Odds

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20 May 2023

Orioles vs Blue Jays Prediction, Picks, Odds

It's been a struggle for much of 2023 for Alek Manoah, but the Blue Jays hurler is in better shape than the Orioles' Grayson Rodriguez, and our MLB betting picks expect Toronto to take advantage of that.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays continue to trend in different directions, so naturally an expensive price on the struggling home team here has many scratching their heads. With the way both pitchers are looking, though, this line could actually be right on.

Let’s break down Orioles vs. Blue Jays in our MLB picks and predictions for May 20.

Orioles vs Blue Jays odds

Orioles vs Blue Jays predictions

It’s been a very bad season for Toronto Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah, but every start is a new opportunity to turn things around. The highly-touted righty had seemed to be doing just that with a string of three good starts, only to allow eight earned in his next two starts, taking him across 8 2/3 innings. He walked a whopping seven batters and struck out just four in a stunning reversal of what we’ve seen for years.

It’s unclear just what’s troubling Manoah, but it’s obvious his sinker is not working. Despite all the poor numbers, he’s allowed a .319 xBA on the pitch to just a .232 real-life batting average, though the silver lining here is that his ground ball rate is actually up a tick from 38.4% last year to 39.2% this season.

So, Manoah is just giving up slightly more hard-hit balls, and striking out fewer hitters while walking many more. It’s not a situation that’s impossible to recover from, and the Baltimore Orioles enter this one just 20th in wRC+ over the last two weeks with an elevated 22.4% strikeout rate.

We will get into Grayson Rodriguez below, but I do not like him one bit, at least as presently advertised. He has had similar issues to Manoah in the walk department, and is giving up hard-hit ball after hard-hit ball. I think at the very least the pitching matchup is equal, so the better offense makes sense for a bet here.

My best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-139 at SIA)

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Orioles vs Blue Jays moneyline analysis

Rodriguez has never been much of a ground ball pitcher, so it’s not surprising to see that number under 40% so far in his rookie season. What’s been very concerning is a hard-hit rate up over 51% and a barrel rate at 10%, which highlight the issues Rodriguez has had when batters make contact. His fastball has been hit to the tune of a .390 average, and his strikeout rate is nowhere near high enough at 25.9% to mask these other issues.

Toronto has brought its strikeout rate down to 20.2% over the last two weeks, and for the season ranks 15th in ground ball rate, meaning the ball will likely be coming back through the air against Rodriguez if his season-long stats are any indication.

The Blue Jays’ offense is simply better in my opinion, even with Baltimore just a notch better in wRC+ for the season. They’ve been the more consistent side and have struck out in fewer plate appearances, which should make the difference in a game where both pitchers need to rely on the punchout.

Orioles vs Blue Jays Over/Under analysis

The Over is surely where I’d be leaning given the struggles of both pitchers, so it’s unsurprising to see it getting so much love here on Saturday. A solid 61% of the bets placed on the total here at the DraftKings Sporstbook have come in on the Over 9.5 runs, while a commanding 82% of the money is on the Over as well.

It makes total sense when you consider these are both Top-11 offenses by wRC+ which really haven’t had too many issues lately in making contact with the baseball. Statistically speaking, when the ball has come back into play against Rodriguez and Manoah, it’s been quite catastrophic, so you’d be smart to bet on some runs here. Baltimore is also Top 5 against sinkers to make matters even better.

Orioles vs Blue Jays game info

Starting pitchers

Grayson Rodriguez (2-1, 6.57 ERA): The No. 1 pitching prospect in baseball entering the season, Rodriguez has now pitched to a 6.57 ERA in his first eight starts. He allowed eight earned runs last time out against the Angels, and he’s now allowed seven homers in his last three starts.

Alek Manoah (1-4, 5.40 ERA): The right-hander had been improving with every month in the big leagues until this season, where he’s started with a 5.40 ERA in nine starts. Last time out he allowed five earned runs to the Yankees, walking seven.