Our Best Bets for February 12

Scottie Barnes' second NBA campaign has had its fair share of ups and downs and lately, it's been all downs. Find out how to take advantage in our NBA player prop picks for Super Bowl Sunday.

It might be Super Bowl Sunday but that doesn’t mean there’s a break in the NBA action.

Sunday, February 12 only features two games on the schedule, but we’ve taken a hard look at both to find the best NBA player props.

Our three favorite NBA prop picks feature a trio of young players in Scottie Barnes, Ja Morant, and Killian Hayes — read more below.

NBA player props for February 12

Picks made on 2/12/2023 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Blase Barnes

All top draft picks are subject to immense scrutiny, but it would be hard to find a second-year player in the NBA who has been the recipient of more praise and yet also the target of more criticism than Scottie Barnes.

Barnes won Rookie of the Year, but his second season has not seen the kind of linear improvement that many expected. Barnes started the season incredibly poorly, then had a strong bounce-back streak that raised his stock to as high as it has ever been.

However, he’s on the downswing yet again, as it seems his fortunes seem to follow those of the Toronto Raptors writ large. 

Barnes has been carrying a heavy load for the Raptors, and his production and efficiency have begun to dip. His scoring and assists are slightly higher than last season, but his shooting and finishing are both not where he was hoping they’d be. He’s scoring worse from both the rim and from 3-point range in his second season, and his true shooting is well below league average.

He has improved as a playmaker, but it's been sporadic. Barnes has hit the Under on his points and assists prop in six straight games, something I’m banking on again today.

Scottie Barnes prop: Under 21.5 points + assists (-108)

Sniper Ja

When you think about Ja Morant, shooting is probably not one of the skills you most associate with him. After all, he’s one of the best athletes in the league and a dynamic finisher and playmaker, and he came into the NBA with an awkward-looking jumper.

But it’s a weapon that Ja has worked diligently to develop and it’s become increasingly important to the Grizzlies' offense. Most teams have been happy with daring Ja to beat them on the perimeter in order to cut off his driving game. Daring Ja to shoot sounds better than it has been in practice, however, as Ja has hit three or more threes in four of his last six games.

Morant’s shooting took a dip earlier in the season, in large part because opposing teams were able to solely key in on him from beyond the arc, but with Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. both operating at the peak of their powers as well, teams will have to live with Ja shooting to prevent his drives and kick outs to even deadlier shooters.

Against teams with quality rim protection like the Boston Celtics, Ja uses the threat of his 3-pointer to open up the court. After a couple of makes, teams are forced to close out hard to him, and that really opens up the floor for Morant’s preferred work as a floor general.

Against a team as defensively solid as the Celtics, I’m betting they’ll test Morant from the perimeter early, and he’s been hitting north of 40% of his triples over the last five games.

Ja Morant prop: Over 1.5 made threes (+115)

Not Killian it

The Detroit Pistons are in the midst of a lost season, which made the recent demotion of third-year guard Killian Hayes to the bench all the more discouraging.

Hayes lost his starting spot to Alec Burks, a solid player but one who has no future with the Pistons once this team actually gets good. That’s an indication that there’s little faith being placed in Hayes’ future relevance with the team. And unfortunately, with good reason.

Hayes' true shooting percentage of 45.5% is more than 10 points below the league average and his 91.6 points per 100 shot attempts put him in the third percentile among all point guards, per Cleaning the Glass.

What originally made Hayes intriguing as a prospect back when he was still playing for Ratiopharm Ulm in Germany was the potential diversity of his jump shot. He would regularly take step-backs and threes with serious difficulty off the dribble. It looked promising, but it hasn’t come to fruition in the NBA. Instead, Hayes has become one of the most damaging offensive players in the league.

Hayes has only hit two or more threes in one of his last five games. He regularly shoots four or fewer attempts per game and as he’s only shooting 31.3% from deep on the season (and 26.3% in February). The odds heavily favor this Under.

Killian Hayes prop: Under 1.5 made threes (+100)