Spurs vs Grizzlies Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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02 January 2024

Spurs vs Grizzlies Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Desmond Bane's settling into his more natural role with Ja Morant back for the Grizzlies, but that doesn't mean he's shooting less. Our NBA picks like the sniper to hit his mark against the Spurs tonight.

Two teams stuck in the Western Conference basement face off Tuesday night as the Memphis Grizzlies host the San Antonio Spurs at FedExForum.

Memphis had hoped Ja Morant's return would help it skyrocket back toward the playoff picture, but three straight losses have put the brakes on the Grizzlies' 4-0 start with Morant back.

San Antonio, meanwhile, is 5-27 on the season, eternally thankful that the embarrassing 3-30 Pistons are stealing all the media furor. Still, we're seeing the Grizz as hefty 10.5-point NBA odds favorites in a get-right spot served on a silver platter.

Should we have faith in Memphis? Or is there another angle for our free NBA picks to target? Find out in my Spurs vs. Grizzlies preview for January 2.

Spurs vs Grizzlies odds

Spurs vs Grizzlies predictions

It's a shame player props markets haven't evolved to the point where we can bet on Ja Morant to try and dunk on Victor Wembanyama, because I would hammer that without hesitation.

Instead, we'll have to go searching for something less fun, but perhaps no less obvious.

Desmond Bane hasn't seen the expected downtick in his shooting volume since Morant's return, at 18.5 attempts per game, down just slightly from his 19.1 average on the season. Moreover, for our purposes, he's taking a higher proportion of those from long range: 10.1 over that stretch, vs. 9.0 on the season.

It makes sense, with Morant sucking defenses into the paint on his audacious forays to the rim. Bane thus slots back into his more natural role as the primary spacing threat, even though he aptly filled in as an off-the-bounce creator.

Desmond Bane odds tab his threes made prop at 3.5 tonight, exactly in line with his season average. But there's plenty of reason to think he'll top that number against San Antonio.

Firstly, Bane hit 42.6% of his threes in December — an expected positive regression for a career 41.8% marksman — after hitting just over 35% of his threes through the season's first six weeks when the Grizzlies' halfcourt offense was an utter disaster.

Second, and more importantly, the Spurs are a dream matchup for this prop. Not only does San Antonio play at the league's third-fastest pace (read: more stat-padding), but concedes the seventh-most threes and allows opponents to hit them at the second-highest rate (39.2%), which is a recipe for disaster against Bane, who seldom shies away.

Furthermore, it's definitely in Memphis' best interest to space away from Stretch Armstrong Wembanyama (minutes restriction aside) as much as possible. Wemby's primary defensive assignment is sure to be helping on Morant drives, setting up more opportunities for penetrate-and-kick threes.

Bane's played two games against fast-paced terrible defensive teams (Indiana and Atlanta) with Morant back. In those two games, he attempted a whopping 26 threes, hitting five in each. Even in what were sub-par shooting nights for his lofty standards, Bane aced tonight's total.

The attempts will be there. Unless Bane anomalously goes ice-cold against one of the NBA's worst defenses, a blowout should be the only threat to this Over cashing. Plus money is just icing on the cake.

My best bet: Desmond Bane Over 3.5 made threes (+105 at DraftKings)

Spurs vs Grizzlies same-game parlay

Desmond Bane Over 3.5 made threes

Jaren Jackson Jr Under 6.5 rebounds

Ja Morant Over 7.5 assists

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This matchup and the plus money made Bane's threes my best bet target, but there was another Grizzlies-based NBA player prop that I was very tempted by.

The knock on Jaren Jackson Jr. (other than his inability to stop fouling) has been his reluctance as a rebounder, which has sunk to new lows since Morant's return. He's averaging just 4.7 boards over his past nine games — topping 6.5 just twice in that span — with one of those coming in an OT game. Any minutes Jackson spends matched up with Wemby's length will be a nightmare for a tentative rebounder like him, so don't expect him to just snap out of this disappearing act on the glass.

Finally, I'm backing Morant to top 7.5 assists, as he's done so in four of six games since returning. The logic here plays into the Bane prop, as Wemby will likely be a roaming deterrent against Ja penetration, setting up more opportunities for the Grizzlies' PG to pick apart a bad defensive team's passing lanes to open shooters.

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Spurs vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread sits between 10.5 and 11.5 across major books as of Tuesday morning, having briefly risen as high as 12 at some outlets.

Both of these teams have stunk against the spread this season, with Memphis at 13-19 and the Spurs at 12-20, both Bottom 5 marks. While the Grizzlies improve to 4-2 ATS with Morant in the lineup, it's still a relatively small sample to instill confidence against a spread this large.

Books have, likewise, failed to form a consensus on the total, sitting anywhere between 234 and 235.5.

Most books opened in the 231.5 range, some as low as 230.5, but 's 233.5 number seemed more realistic, with sharp action driving the total up across the industry.

I'd have been inclined to bet the Over in the low 230s, given how awful the Spurs are on defense and Memphis' tendencies to enable track meets with fast-paced teams. But the market's heavily corrected, and it's unlikely we'll see the total fall.

Spurs vs Grizzlies betting trend to know

The Grizzlies have only hit the team total Over in 25 of their last 77 games (-34.35 Units / -39% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Grizzlies.

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